The Government Shutdown Gamble

It is expected that today, March 11, the House of Representatives will vote on passing a six-month funding extension to keep the federal lights burning. With a 218 to 214 split in the lower chamber, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can afford just a single defection. And with one GOP fly in the ointment already declaring he is out, it seems this effort to avoid the looming Friday shutdown is reliant on the proverbial wing and partisan prayer.

What’s On Offer?

The continuing resolution, coming in at just 99-pages, would slightly increase defense spending and funds for veterans while pushing non-defense spending to pre-2024 levels. It also includes additional funds for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement).

President Donald Trump was supportive of the package, saying on his TruthSocial account:

“The House and Senate have put together, under the circumstances, a very good funding Bill (“CR”)! All Republicans should vote (Please!) YES next week. Great things are coming for America, and I am asking you all to give us a few months to get us through to September so we can continue to put the Country’s ‘financial house’ in order.”

He also warned of opposition, saying that “Democrats will do anything they can to shut down our Government, and we can’t let that happen. We have to remain UNITED — NO DISSENT — Fight for another day when the timing is right.”

It is being widely reported that Mr. Trump spent the weekend meeting with his congressional colleagues to bolster support. And a number of supposedly “hardline” Republicans appear willing to back the bill. In fact, the only firm “no” so far on the GOP side is Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who wrote on X that “Unless I get a lobotomy Monday that causes me to forget what I’ve witnessed the past 12 years, I’ll be a NO on the CR this week.”

Mr. Massie is the only House GOP vote Speaker Johnson can afford to lose – barring any Democrat absences from the chamber.

Democrats Ready for the Shutdown

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is in the process of rallying his fellow Democrats against the 99-page bill, and may, in fact, end up representing an alternative stop-gap measure crafted by two of his own. It’s a smooth play that could shift the public perception of blame back to the Republicans should the GOP plan fail.

The Democrat proposal keeps funding levels stable for the next four weeks, allowing more time for negotiation. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) said of the “plan B”:

“There is a very clear alternative to House Republicans’ plan: immediately passing a short-term patch to prevent a senseless shutdown and finishing work on serious, bipartisan funding bills that invest in working Americans, keep our country safe, and ensure our constituents have a say in how federal funding is spent.”

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) told The Daily Signal, “Congressional Democrats, ‘led’ by [Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.] are not only planning on voting for a government shutdown, they are craving it.”

The narrative is, indeed, set. The Fourth Estate can dutifully claim that the GOP is a divided party, unwilling to play fair with their congressional counterparts. Democrats can deride the majority party for being unable to work across the aisle, and of being willing to sacrifice stability for the machinations of President Trump.

Of course, that’s just one way to spin the saga. Republicans will, should the current bill fail to pass, accuse Democrats of not being willing to work with the majority and of being plain old obstructionists. And this line of attack could have some resonance when we hear chatter from the Senate.

The Not-so-Steep Senate Hill

While most Republican senators have signaled a wiliness to get behind the extension (notably excluding Kentucky’s Rand Paul), there have also been statements from upper-chamber Democrats that suggest the 60-vote threshold is within reach.

Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) said that he would back the GOP House plan, because a government shutdown would be problematic. "That's chaos,” he said. “I'll never vote for chaos." His words were echoed by Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon who said: "Shutdowns are a bad idea. I'm not a shutdown guy."

Whether the CR even makes it to the Senate is very much an open question. But just how damaging will a shutdown really be? And will certain sectors continue to run even if funding is not forthcoming?

Should the measure fail to get the required majorities in either chamber this week, it will be lights out for much of the federal machine. One wonders whether the data-driven guys from DOGE will decide that their mission is actually easier to accomplish under such circumstances. And that possibility alone might convince a few more cautious lawmakers to cross the aisle.