Redistricting Arms Race Continues Apace

The run-up to this year’s November midterms has become essential viewing for a public eager to predict just how likely the GOP is to control the House of Representatives when the final ballot count drops. Historical trends point to losses in the lower chamber for the party in power. But a wild redistricting spree has set the proverbial cat among the pigeons in terms of the electoral math. And decisions from two different courts this week have just made the calculations even more complex.

A Missouri Mess

On Wednesday, August 19, a Missouri court decision set the stage for a shift in the balance of power. Currently, the Show Me State has a six-to-two GOP majority in terms of US representatives. A redistricting effort – coming shortly after Texas’ opening gambit – redrew battle lines and could add an extra Republican seat come the November contest.

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Naturally, interested parties tried to reverse course and put the redistricting to a referendum. Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green disagreed, ruling that “the Missouri Constitution does not supply any statement – let alone a clear one – reallocating authority over congressional redistricting away from the General Assembly to a referendum process.” But that’s not the end of the story, and the big twist is still to come.

This case is headed straight to the Missouri Supreme Court, where the measure’s fate will be decided. But hanging over the justices’ heads is the fact that the current map – the one that would likely add an extra GOP seat – was already used in the August primaries.

Overturning Judge Green’s decision could also mean overturning the state’s primary elections, and that may be a step too far for the high court, especially with the midterms just over the next hill.

Redistricting Mayhem in Maryland

Democratic Governor Wes Moore led the charge to apply some – as he sees it – tit-for-tat redistricting in the Old Line State. Yesterday, August 26, the state court struck down a proposed amendment that would grant Democrats in the legislature the power to redraw the maps ahead of the 2028 elections. While this change would not directly impact November’s vote tally, it matters for two reasons. First, it’s possible that Republican or independent voters may be less likely to vote for a US representative who will not even have a seat to contest two years down the line. And second, and perhaps more importantly, it highlights that the Democrat counteroffensive in redistricting has been stumbling over procedural problems.

Judge Robert J. Thompson ruled that, as well as missing their own deadline, lawmakers used “intentionally misleading” language on the ballot question by claiming it merely “clarifies” the state constitution’s redistricting standards. If this all sounds familiar, that’s because a similar situation happened in Virginia just a short while ago.

As NPR reported back in May:

“The state Supreme Court found that the legislature violated the multistep process for putting constitutional amendments on the ballot and that the ‘constitutional violation incurably taints the resulting referendum vote and nullifies its legal efficacy.’”

Electoral Math

Estimates vary, but a rough calculation suggests the GOP might win up to an extra 16 seats from these efforts, while Democrats hope to pick up between six and ten. Overall, Republicans seem likely to end up with between four and ten fresh congressional districts. Will it be enough?

Over 12 midterm cycles in the last 50 years, the party in power lost an average of 21 seats, often more when presidential approval ratings were in the high 30s to low 40s. Ultimately, a net pickup of ten seats probably won't move the needle much. But it is not just the shape of districts that decides an election. President Trump and his congressional colleagues have just under 70 days to turn the ship around. British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once famously noted that "a week is a long time in politics," but ten weeks is a practical eternity, and a lot can happen between now and then.