After more than 13 years of civil war, the Assad government in Syria has been overthrown. What had been a hapless opposition suddenly won. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces have, in the last few weeks, been rolling through towns previously held firmly by the Syrian Army. The regular military forces showed no appetite to defend territory, threw off their uniforms, and melted into the citizenry. Consequently, HTS rebel militiamen captured city after city with little or no resistance. What does this mean for the region? And who exactly are these rebels?
Syria Has Fallen to a Rebel Blitzkrieg
Liberty Nation News reported that HTS culminated in a lightning-fast seizure of town after town along the highway between Aleppo and Damascus by capturing the capital without resistance. LNN explained:
"Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country and resigned after armed opposition forces took Damascus Sunday morning. 'We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains,' rebel commander Abu Mohammad al-Golani said on Syria's state TV after the successful takeover. 'The future is ours'…This successful takeover by Syrian rebels is the culmination of more than 13 years of civil war and marks the end of half a century of Assad family rule. Bashar al-Assad led that dynasty since 2000."
That fight ended on Sunday, December 8, amid celebratory gunfire as HTS entered Damascus, heralded by a joyous celebration among the Damascus citizens. According to Sky News, hightailing out of Damascus just ahead of the rebels, the Assad family flew to Russia, landing in Moscow, as reported by the Russian media source TASS. "The rebels entered Damascus encountering no resistance from the Army...Residents were also reported to have entered the Al-Rawda Presidential Palace and carted away furniture. The rebels also reportedly freed prisoners from Saydnaya prison," according to the Daily Caller.
Who exactly is the HTS group? From where did it come? The Conversation provided the answer by explaining how HTS rose to a position of power sufficient to topple the Assad family. "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has its roots in the early stages of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 as a popular uprising against the autocratic government of Assad," The Conversation said in the article "What is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? And how did the Islamist group evolve into a key player in Syria's civil war?" HTS prefers to portray itself as a moderate Islamic faction more interested in taking care of the people with humanitarian programs than pursuing jihad.
However, that was not always the persona of the rebel group. In 2011, when the opposition to the brutal Bashar al-Assad emerged, HTS was allied with the Nusra Front, an ally of al-Qaeda in Syria. It was not until 2016 that the rebel group attempted to recreate its image as the Nusra Front publicly severing its allegiance to al-Qaeda. After adopting the name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or "Front for the Conquest of the Lavant," a year later the newly minted rebel group settled on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant." A rose by any other name smells like a caliphate wannabe. Nonetheless, the ten-day victory of HTS over the Syrian Army is impressive.
Though the Assad government is the biggest loser, hands down, others are not faring well either. Iran-backed Hezbollah, a strong ally of the collapsed Syrian government, was unable to provide any support and was shown to be pitifully weak in the region. Iran, which had been one of, if not the strongest supporter of Bashar al-Assad, demonstrated it too was impotent in sending aid to defeat or slow HTS. Lastly, the Russians, who had been the most powerful ally assisting Assad in battling all of the rebel factions opposing the government in Damascus, were seriously weakened in the aftermath of the rebels' takeover of Syria. Moscow enjoyed a strong presence in the Middle East, with two major military bases in Syria.
"Russian bloggers with links inside the Ministry of Defense report Moscow's main airbase at Hmeimim and naval base in Tartous are at risk of being overrun if opposition rebels attack. 'Nor, he warned, would a full evacuation of all of Russia's military equipment be possible if it became necessary,'" Reuters explained. The future of the Kremlin's military installations is in the hands of the rebels – the very same HTS fighters that Russian bombers attacked for the Assad regime. Reports are that the victorious rebels gave Russia 48 hours to get out of Tartous naval base and Hmeimim air base. The flight of the Russians out of the two installations will probably result in leaving a lot of equipment behind. Where have we seen this before?
What will happen now in the region is anybody's guess. "If the war in Gaza is the worst manifestation yet of the seemingly intractable Israel-Palestinian dispute, which drew in the armed Lebanese group Hezbollah, analysts call the fight for Syria a far more important struggle to dominate a regional crossroads that influences the entire Middle East," is the assessment of The New York Times. How this impacts US foreign policy in the region rests with President Biden's administration for the next 20 or so days. President-elect Donald Trump made his view clear in a Truth Social post. "There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED! [Emphasis by D. Trump]," Trump offered.
Notably, the US launched more than 75 precision strikes against known ISIS positions on Sunday evening in what CENTCOM described as "part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS.” Further stating that it wanted to “prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria.”
As Abu Mohammad al-Golani exclaimed, the future may be his group's, but the consequences will fall to Syria's neighbors. The question is, will HTS usher in a more peaceful, less oppressive government, or is the region looking at another Taliban? Regardless, Israel is probably no better off.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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