The headlines in leftist media following Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Florida reflected a long-needed ray of hope for a Democratic Party that has fallen to its lowest ebb in decades. Some even implied that it was the beginning of the end for President Donald Trump and Republicans, that their control of the big three – the presidency, the House, and the Senate – is now greatly imperiled with midterm elections approaching in 18 months.
CNN asked a presumably rhetorical question: “Are Tuesday’s Results a Red Alert for Trump?” The Guardian weighed in with, “The Florida and Wisconsin election results are a warning for Trump and Republicans.” In a story headlined “Trump Has Gone Too Far, and Americans Are Noticing,” The Hill declared that “the worm is turning on the president.”
Reality or Illusion?
Are Trump and the GOP actually in trouble, or is this just wishful thinking by the left? Desperate people look for any port in a storm, and Democrats believe they found one in the 10-point victory by leftist Susan Crawford in the much-ballyhooed Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the most heavily financed such contest in American history. Furthermore, they celebrated the fact that, in the two special elections in ruby-red Florida congressional districts, the margin of victory for both Republicans – 14% – was less than half of both Trump and the previous congressmen in their districts last November.
Let’s take a step back and sort out the truth and consequences of this small round of off-year elections. It is undoubtedly true that the GOP would have benefited from having Trump and his record-high approval rating heading the ballot. Because he wasn’t, voter turnout was surely suppressed, shrinking by 55%, from 427,474 in November to 195,475 in Florida’s 6th district, and by 59% in the state’s 1st district, from 414,904 to 169,639. Multiple analysts have concluded that the GOP now gains an advantage from high turnout, which, as reported by the Associated Press, “[C]ontradicts the belief in politics that Democrats, not Republicans, benefit from high-turnout elections.” In Wisconsin, the drop-off in statewide turnout was considerably less than in the individual Florida congressional districts. Across the Badger State, 2,364,372 ballots were cast, compared to 3,395,870 in the November election, a 30% drop.
But leftists could not spin their way out of another result. With all the attention focused on the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the most underreported outcome in the special elections was the referendum on adding mandatory voter ID to the Wisconsin state constitution. Yet 60.3% of voters approved, affirming the majority opinion across the country favoring the requirement to produce a government-issued photo ID in order to cast a ballot. While that law was already on the books in the Badger State, elevating it to a constitutional amendment not only reflected broad popular support for election security but also assured that no future state legislature could overturn it.
Election Behavior
There is a key factor in play here relating to human behavior and politics. Losing begets anger, and anger drives people to the polls. Trump supporters are essentially fat and happy these days because their man scored a convincing victory. Thus, they aren’t particularly fired up for local or statewide special elections. Democrats, on the other hand, are furious and frustrated that Trump and Elon Musk are running the table and threatening so much they hold dear, and they’re looking for any opportunity that presents itself to vent their frustration. This is hardly atypical. An inverse example would be the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, when energized Republicans enraged at the governance of President Barack Obama flooded the voting booth, resulting in big gains in Congress for the GOP.
Speaking of Obama, these special elections, like the midterms, point to a real similarity between the 44th and the 45th/47th presidents. Both Obama and Trump stand as unique, groundbreaking historical figures who have proven to have relatively short coattails. In other words, their popularity does not necessarily transfer to down-ballot candidates the way it does with more typical politicians like George W. Bush or Joe Biden, who reflect their parties in general. While Obama scored two easy victories in 2008 and 2012, Democrats lost more than 1,000 federal, state, and local seats across the nation over his eight years in office.
History has consistently demonstrated that the out-of-power party almost always, with precious few exceptions, holds an electoral advantage in off-year and midterm elections because there are so many decisions and policies that will inevitably prove to be unpopular with the minority. Trump benefited greatly from widespread disapproval of the Biden administration, just as Biden had much to target in the first Trump administration.
Democrats Still in Denial
Even The New York Times now admits that the Democrats remain leaderless, divided, and desperately in search of some sort of winning message. The likes of Tim Walz continue to argue that the problem with the 2024 election was simply poor messaging, failing or refusing to understand and accept that it was their policies, not their presentation, that resulted in an electoral disaster. Nevertheless, it is still more likely than not that Democrats will gain control of the House next year, given historical trends and their deranged hatred of all things Trump, as reflected in the Tesla terrorism targeting Trump’s right-hand man, the explosively controversial Elon Musk.
A year and a half is longer than an eternity in politics, especially with the fundamental transformation of the national and world economy through Trump’s sweeping tariff regime, which has led to the one thing that causes markets to shake: uncertainty. Trump has written just the opening chapter of a lengthy book with his “Liberation Day” pronouncements. All possibilities, ranging from spectacular growth to recession, are possible with such a high-risk, high-reward strategy. This president ran on a platform of reducing the cost of living and is smartly implementing these tariffs early in his term, allowing sufficient time for them to achieve what he promises before the midterms. If prices are higher next November, it will cost Republicans dearly at the ballot box. If they move lower thanks to the tariffs, all-of-the-above, drill-baby-drill energy policies, and the trillions in investments that Trump has already attracted, the GOP stands a decent chance of maintaining control of the Senate and, at least, holding if not expanding its razor-thin majority in the House. Either way, by then, people will have long forgotten about the race for a single judgeship in Wisconsin.
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