Bureaucrats from Ukraine and Russia met in Turkey on Friday, May 16, to discuss peace. Neither nation’s president showed up to the talks – and neither did Donald Trump, which might seem an odd thing to point out at first glance, but it's nevertheless relevant. The talks lasted less than two hours and reportedly resulted in no progress at all. Who could have guessed? Well, Donald Trump, for one. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also predicted failure.
In Albania, leaders of the European Union had a meeting of their own on Friday. The topic for discussion: more sanctions against Russia. The EU has already adopted 17 sanctions packages against Russia, according to Reuters, and diplomats report they’re having difficulty getting the unanimity among the 27 members required to pass more. What’s worse, though, is that even these efforts may not accomplish the desired effect without American support.
Failed Talks, Exactly as Expected
On Thursday, numerous media outlets reported on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump weighing in on the then-pending peace talks in Turkey. Neither was optimistic – and they both turned out to be right.
“I don't think we're going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump and President Putin interact directly on this topic,” Rubio said after a NATO meeting in southern Turkey. “I hope I’m 100% wrong. I hope tomorrow the news says they’ve agreed to a ceasefire; they’ve agreed to enter serious negotiations. But I’m just giving you my assessment, honestly,” he said.
"Look, nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together,” President Trump told the BBC during a flight on Air Force One. “He wasn't going if I wasn't there and I don't believe anything's going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together. But we're going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying."
Initially, delegations from the US, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia were all supposed to meet on Thursday in Istanbul. But it just didn’t happen. Instead, teams were sent on Friday from Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky was going to show up, but his direct challenge to Putin to meet him there was rejected, with the Kremlin replying that the Russian president wasn’t among the officials due to travel. Zelensky called the rejection disrespectful and also decided not to show up in person.
The two parties met at a palace for their first face-to-face meeting since March 2022, when the invasion began. Russia reportedly saw this as a continuation of those initial talks. A Ukrainian source told Reuters that the Russian demands were “detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed.” Ultimately, Ukraine wants a full ceasefire and Russia wants the same – but only if Ukraine meets the Kremlin’s list of demands. Otherwise, Russia says it’s ready to fight for at least another 21 years. How’s that for a line to end a peace talk?
The European Approach
While Ukrainian and Russian diplomats were failing to achieve peace on their own, other leaders from across Europe met in Tirana, the capital of Albania, to discuss more sanctions against Russia.
“He does not want peace, so we have to increase the pressure, and this is why we are working on a new package of sanctions,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said before the meeting, referring to Putin. “This package will include for example sanctions on Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. It will include working on listing more vessels of the Russian shadow fleet and also lowering the oil price cap, and will include more sanctions on the financial sector in Russia.”
There’s just one problem with this new batch of sanctions: It would, according to European officials, require US support to succeed. The new chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, made that point, saying Europe must increase its defense capabilities, but that the region needs to work with the US to make it happen. “We have to undertake all efforts to keep the Americans on our side,” Merz said. “We cannot substitute or replace what the Americans still do for us on our continent.”
The Trump Factor
So, where was President Donald Trump while all of Europe seemed to be scrambling to make progress without much success? He just wrapped up a trip across the Middle East, during which he made some impressive deals.
In Saudi Arabia, Trump signed a $600 billion “strategic economic partnership” agreement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Riyadh will be investing in US AI and energy infrastructure for the sake of “cutting-edge transformative technologies in both countries.” The defense package, worth $142 billion, is the “largest defense sales agreement in history,” according to the White House. President Trump suggests the deal could near $1 trillion in the coming months and generate up to 2 million jobs in the US.
He also signed a $1.2 trillion “economic exchange” deal in Qatar that includes the purchase of 210 Boeing jets for $96 billion and more energy infrastructure agreements. Qatar even offered to gift Trump a new Air Force One, though such a gesture would be problematic for the president to accept.
Trump also expanded a $1.4 trillion deal with the United Arab Emirates in March and announced another $200 billion in commercial deals between Washington and Abu Dhabi.
America’s commander-in-chief did more than broker big-money deals on his trip, though. He also put pressure on Iran. “If Iran’s leadership rejects the olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure,” the president said during an address in Saudi Arabia. “The choice is theirs to make.”
“If only the Iranian regime had focused on building their nation up instead of tearing the region down,” Trump said. “Yet I'm here today not merely to condemn the past chaos of Iran's leaders, but to offer them a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future. In the case of Iran, I have never believed in having permanent enemies.”
Finally, in a surprising move, Trump removed the sanctions on Syria to give the nation a “fresh start.” Interestingly, the World Bank also reported Friday that it had cleared Syria’s $15.5 million in debt after payments from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. This payoff makes Syria once again eligible for grants to fund reconstruction and economic recovery. Could this also have been part of President Trump’s dealings in the region?
Circling back to Russia and Ukraine, Trump, Rubio, and even German Chancellor Merz don’t seem to think the war will end without America’s dealmaker-in-chief working his magic. Trump predicted the Ukraine-Russia talks would collapse, and they did. He certainly proved, once again, his skills in the Middle East this week while Europe failed to make any notable progress. Does a deal between Ukraine and Russia depend on the Donald? Maybe it does after all.
