The Candidates' Market Report
President Trump's approval rating has been edging up all week, finishing at 53%, a high point not seen so far this year. With the passing of Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the election odds are going into a tailspin. Who sits on the highest court in the land is regarded by many voters as more important than who occupies the White House, and both parties have capitalized on this with fundraising efforts. At present, Joe Biden seems to be outraising Trump, but he is also spending a lot more than the president, which could leave him short in the crucial last weeks before election day.
It looks like the president is all set to nominate his third justice to SCOTUS, much to the chagrin of Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has indicated that he is ready to start proceedings and begin the nomination process. The odds-on favorite (should the process go ahead) is Amy Coney Barrett - a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit - closely followed by Barbara Lagoa. The latter is Cuban-American and hails from the all-important swing state Florida. Both are seen as steady conservatives and will face little opposition from Senate Republicans.
Polling indicates that the majority don't want President Trump to go ahead with the nomination, however something very strange is happening with pollsters in general - see below.
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump - 53% ( + 2% )
- Congress - 18% ( + 1% )
Senate Map:
When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here's a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:- Republicans: 47
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
- Toss Up: 7
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida- Republicans - 5/6
- Democrats - 5/6
- Republicans - 1/4
- Democrats - 11/4
- Democrats - 4/9
- Republicans - 13/8
- Democrats - 1/18
- Republicans - 7/1
- Republicans - 3/10
- Democrats - 9/4
- Republicans - 4/11
- Democrats - 15/8
- Democrats - 1/7
- Republicans - 4/1
- Democrats - 2/9
- Republicans - 11/4
- Republicans - 4/5
- Democrats - 10/11
- Republicans - 4/9
- Democrats - 13/8
- Democrats - 8/15
- Republicans - 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden - 4/5
- Donald Trump - 11/10
- Kamala Harris - 80/1
- Hillary Clinton - 250/1
- Mike Pence - 250/1
- Michelle Obama - 300/1
- Kanye West - 500/1
- Bernie Sanders - no odds under 500/1
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
- 270 - 299 = 5/1
- 300 - 329 = 5/1
- 210 - 239 = 11/2
- 180 - 209 = 6/1
- 240 - 269 = 6/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
~ Read more from Mark Angelides.
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