Now that the dust has settled, and Vice President Kamala Harris has certified the 2024 election, Democrats and Republicans are taking a deep breath and looking to chart a course ahead. As the two parties take stock of the voters' decision to hand the legislative and executive branches of government to the Grand Old Party, a new poll reveals that it may have an easier time figuring out its future than the Democratic Party.
The well-known barb “[W]inning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” certainly applies to the hard-fought election, and a decisive win by President Donald Trump and the Republican Party has left the Democrats in a state of confusion. A poll conducted by the Napolitan News Service reveals the conundrum.
When asked, “Do you consider yourself a progressive Democrat or a traditional Democrat?” 43% of those between the ages of 35-44 say they are progressive, while 44% call themselves traditional Democrats. The age grouping just above that, 45-54, showed a bit more of a spread, with 42% saying they identify as progressive to 51% traditional. Where things get weird is in the 55-64 age group, which has flipped to 50% progressive and 40% traditional.
What does this tell Democratic operatives? It’s pretty clear their membership is split, and this is likely to muddle future party plans. Whether they should go back to the center or keep moving left is unclear. Some could argue that the youngest group – 18-34 – which came in at 62% progressive and only 25% traditional should carry the most weight because they represent the future of the party. However, historical voting patterns demonstrate that older voters tend to be more conservative and exercise their franchise in higher numbers.
Poll: GOP Less Conflicted
Meanwhile, over on the Republican side, the clouds have parted, and the sun is peeking through the horizon, sparkling between hues of red, white, and blue. When asked, “Do you consider yourself a Reagan Republican or a Trump Republican?” 64% in the 35-44 bracket aligned with Trump and only 27% with Reagan; however, the youngest age category (18-34) came out even more decisively for Trump at 73%. In fact, for every age group polled, Trump came out ahead by more than 20 points, save the 65+ demographic, but even that category revealed a 19% advantage for the Trumpists.
This is not to denigrate the 40th president in any way, but it does illustrate the power that Trump exerts over the Republican Party. “Even among those who were old enough to remember the Reagan era, 54% now consider themselves a Trump Republican,” according to the Napolitan News Service survey.
What makes this survey so fascinating is that it demonstrates Trump’s sheer power over the Grand Old Party despite the incessant raging of anti-Trump Reagan Republicans nicknamed Never-Trumpers, who vehemently opposed the former and soon-to-be next president. It appears such vociferous opposition to Trump backfired just as the lawfare game played against him only served to make Americans dig in their heels in support of the beleaguered president, who was not able to serve two consecutive terms. The funny thing about this is that skipping a term put Trump in a sturdier position to upset the Swamp applecart in his upcoming administration.
In The Atlantic, as recently as September 2024, Never-Trumper Max Boot articulated “How the GOP Went From Reagan to Trump” and admitted, “ridding the Republican Party of his [Trump’s] influence won’t be easy.” He continued:
“The question for the Republican Party now is: What comes next? Will the party continue moving ever further to the right, toward a Viktor Orbán-style authoritarian movement that would presumably have Reagan (an avid believer in democracy) doing more spinning in his grave? Or will it revert to being a more center-right party in the Reagan mold? In the 1980s, ‘Reaganism’ represented a right turn for the GOP. Today, it would represent a left turn -- a restoration of a more moderate, if still conservative, outlook. That may still happen. But only if Trump loses decisively in November — and even then, it won’t be easy.
As everyone knows, Trump did not “lose decisively in November,” which means that Boot and his fellow Trump-deranged travelers are not likely to get their wish. Like it or not, they have no choice but to accept that Donald Trump now owns the Republican Party lock, stock, and barrel.
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