Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has suspended his independent presidential campaign and will be supporting Donald Trump - but he isn't withdrawing entirely. The former Democrat made his announcement on Friday, August 23, at an event in Phoenix, AZ, just hours ahead of the former president's own rally in the same city.
Since Kennedy first announced Wednesday that he would address his “path forward” later in the week, pundits have speculated that he was pulling out to back the former president – both as payback for the scorn he has faced from his former party and because there might be a Trump administration Cabinet position in the deal. Shortly after the initial announcement, multiple sources reported to various news outlets that Kennedy was indeed planning to withdraw and endorse Trump, and that – while nothing was certain yet – the two campaigns were working toward a deal and, perhaps, even a joint appearance.
Instead of ending his campaign entirely, however, RFK Jr. is suspending it in ten battleground states where he sees himself as a spoiler rather than a legitimate candidate. Kennedy will be removing himself from those state ballots - he filed the necessary paperwork to remove himself from the Arizona ballot late Thursday - but will remain on the ballot in more solidly red and blue states. Voters will still be able to select him, he explained, so that should neither Trump nor Kamala Harris manage to win 270 electoral votes, he still has a chance in a contingency election.
RFK Jr. in the Polls – Can His Endorsement Make the Difference?
Polling from the previous day shows Kennedy holding a range of 4% to 9% of the electorate – potentially enough to effectively hand Trump the win, assuming the survey numbers are close to accurate. According to HarrisX, Trump is up two points (51-49) over Harris in the head-to-head, but down by one point (45-44) in the five-way, with Kennedy holding 9% and another 1% each going to Jill Stein and Cornel West. Data for Progress, a Democratic pollster, shows Harris beating Trump 47-43 in the five-way, with RFK Jr. holding just 5% and a mere 1% West with Stein stalled at zero. Rasmussen Reports has Trump at 47%, Harris 45%, Kennedy 4%, Stein 1%, and West 1%.
If half of Kennedy’s supporters follow him in supporting the former president and scorning the Democrats, it would widen Trump’s lead according to Rasmussen and snatch the win from Harris in the HarrisX poll. Even according to Data for Progress, Kennedy’s support could swing the election. Regardless of the poll one chooses to believe - and despite his declaration that he doesn't want to be a spoiler - RFK Jr. endorsing the former president looks like bad news for Democrats.
