Robert F. Kennedy Jr. isn’t doing so well in the polls. Standing at just 7% in a three-way matchup with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and 5.6% in a five-way that includes the Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West, RFK Jr. has been all but forgotten by voters. But he’s in it to win it, he says, and he still has a plan to defeat both Trump and Harris. Tough talk aside, however, he has reportedly put the feelers out to both major party contenders, presumably seeking a Cabinet appointment in return for his endorsement. And that certainly sounds like a man looking for an off-ramp.
RFK Jr. on the Hunt … for a Job?
RFK Jr. tried to meet with Kamala Harris to discuss a potential Cabinet appointment, Kennedy campaign officials told the press. The Harris campaign, however, has reportedly not responded with so much as an offer to talk.
He apparently tried the same tactic with the Trump campaign just a couple of weeks earlier – also to no avail. Four people “familiar with the matter” claimed RFK Jr. asked to be put in charge of overseeing health and medical issues in a second Trump administration in return for backing the former president. No deal was struck, but the two did meet, and it has since been said that Team Trump isn’t ruling out giving Kennedy a job in the administration.
RFK Jr. said the former president had been more open to discussion than Harris or the DNC. “I have a lot of respect for President Trump for reaching out to me,” he said in an interview. “Nobody from the DNC, high or low, has ever reached out to me in 18 months. Instead, they have allocated millions to try to disrupt my campaign."
Kennedy finalized each outreach effort with an assurance that he would stay in the race. “We are in it to win it,” he said after meeting with Trump. Harris got a bit rougher treatment. News broke Wednesday evening of Kennedy’s offer to the vice president’s team, and on Thursday morning, RFK Jr. posted on social media: “VP Harris’s Democratic Party would be unrecognizable to my father and uncle and I cannot reconcile it with my values … I have no plans to endorse Kamala Harris for President. I do have a plan to defeat her.”
He talks a good game – but it still looks like he’s hunting for a job in return for an endorsement. If one candidate offers him that consolation prize and a way out of the otherwise winner-take-all race, will Kennedy take it? Assuming he would, can either candidate afford for the other to make that offer first?
Polling for the President
In Real Clear Politics’ poll average, measuring a five-way race, Harris currently tops Trump 45.6% to 44.5%, with Kennedy holding an eclectic 5.6% of the vote. Jill Stein comes in third with just 1%. Her campaign ballot access map shows she has only secured half the country. In 25 states, the Green is either petitioning, awaiting certification, fighting for access in court, mounting a write-in campaign, or being barred from the ballot entirely.
Cornel West, the independent polling at just half a percent in the RCP five-way matchup, has secured ballot access in just eight states, according to Ballotpedia. RFK Jr., on the other hand, claims to have secured a spot on the ballots of all but five states and the District of Columbia – with 16 of those confirmed, according to The Hill.
Neither Stein nor West seems likely to factor much into the 2024 general election. Yes, they hold a combined 1.5% of the electorate and the gap between Harris and Trump is currently just 1.1%. If they drop out, though, their votes almost certainly go to Harris – it’s doubtful there are many borderline MAGA types in either camp. There’s a slight chance they hold out and even manage to pull another percent or so, but that’s a long shot.
Far more likely to make a difference is Kennedy. A survey from the Pew Research Center shows that, in a three-way race, 46% prefer Harris, 45% choose Trump, and 7% back Kennedy – not too different from RCP’s five-way matchup. But, just as Kennedy has reportedly waffled between backing either Trump or Harris, his voters are also a mix of outsiders from both camps. Before Biden dropped out of the race, it seemed Kennedy’s presence helped Trump just slightly. Now, it seems it may help Harris instead – but again, ever so slightly. Which campaign he’ll damage more in a three- or five-way general election remains to be seen.
Spoiler or Spoiled?
But he could absolutely make the difference, especially if a majority of his voters are willing to follow his endorsement rather than just skipping back off to whichever party they would have originally backed without him. The question at the moment, however, is whether a withdrawal announcement is in the near future. While he certainly claims to be all-in on beating both Harris and Trump, reports of his negotiating for Cabinet positions raise serious red flags in his campaign. Should he drop out soon, will he endorse one of his leading rivals? If he doesn’t, it’s anybody’s game – but if he does, he could well be choosing the next president of the United States.
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