With just under 18 months to go before the midterm elections, one might assume that any speculation more than a year out is both fruitless and bound to be wrong. And while predictions and polling at this great distance are almost certainly not worth much, there is definitely value in looking at the gambits involved and the stakes on the table.
Indeed, reputations and legacies are on the line, and the souls of America’s two main parties hang in the balance. What are the winning and losing scenarios for this crucial contest?
Trump Bets It All
President Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda since returning to office may seem – at times – like a whirlwind. He swings from DOGE to tariffs to culture wars and deportations at dizzying speed, creating the appearance – if not the actuality – of chaos. And he has a very good reason to do so.
Each of Trump’s major campaign promises was a substantial reimagining of modern politics; these are not overnight fixes. For example, while illegal border crossings have dropped by an estimated 94% since 2024, deportations of those already in the country have been hampered by successive court challenges that will take time and effort to play out.
And then there’s the tariff war taking place on multiple fronts. Trump has publicly pondered eliminating income tax altogether and replacing federal tax revenues with tariff cash. With the government spending more than $6 trillion in 2024 and acquiring just over $4 trillion in revenues, the shortfall is just too great for import levies to cover. However, if DOGE can demonstrate continued savings over the next year – and coffers fill from the tariffs – Trump might be able to show the American people that the impossible is indeed within the realm of possibility and that, with continued support, he can get close to finishing the job. Again, it will take a long time to get the data in shape.
Win Scenario: Republicans keep the House and Senate. With a razor-thin majority in the lower chamber and a tougher-than-usual round of elections in the upper, a dip in either could prove fatal to Trump’s ongoing agenda. If the GOP maintains control, the president can claim that Americans support his efforts so far and have rewarded him with permission to continue.
What’s more, Trump can confidently assert that MAGA is here to stay as the dominant force within the GOP. Since FDR’s 1934 midterm gain of nine House seats, only two presidents have successfully increased their standing during the non-presidential contests: Bill Clinton in his second term and George W. Bush in his first. To maintain or even increase the party majority would be a ringing endorsement of the Trumpian worldview becoming the dominant ideology of the Republican Party.
Lose Scenario: Republicans lose control of either chamber. If the House or Senate falls to Democratic control, any chance of future legislation is effectively doomed, and Trump becomes the lamest of lame-duck presidents. For the current Democratic Party leadership, it appears the entire raison d'être is oppositional defiance against 47, and this agenda would be well served by stalling congressional action.
In 2024, the GOP had a numerical advantage against Democrats in the number of Senate seats they had to defend. That calculus is flipped on its head for 2026 – and, notably, there will be no Trump coattails to drag contenders over the finish line. Of the 35 seats up for election, 22 are currently held by Republican lawmakers. However, not all races are competitive.
The Midterm Map
There’s a streak of deep red running from Montana (with two GOP senators, two GOP representatives, and a GOP governor to fill out the trifecta) all the way southeast to Florida (two GOP senators, 20 out of 28 GOP reps, and a GOP governor). In between these two points is a sea of Senate seats highly unlikely to be anything other than ruby red when the electoral dust settles.
In all, 18 of the 22 Republican seats are widely considered “safe,”* meaning the opposition party has four seats to target realistically. With the current Senate makeup of 53 to 47 and the power of Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats need to win all four to seize the majority. These crucial seats are:
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is representing the only Republican seat in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024; as such, any chance of flipping the majority almost certainly has to run through the Pine Tree State. According to a recent University of New Hampshire survey, fully 58% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent (with only 12% viewing her favorably).
Polling suggests that, should Democratic Gov. Janet Mills enter the fray, she might be able to unseat the five-term senator.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis is seeking his third Senate term in a state that went for Trump by just over three points in the last election. Most pollsters consider this race a “toss-up,” and if former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper enters the arena, it would make for a very tight contest.
Ohio: A special election here determines the future of VP Vance’s old seat. Jon Husted was appointed to the position by Gov. Mike DeWine and has been a staple of Ohio politics, serving in a number of elected roles. The danger for the GOP is that Democrats may run former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who narrowly lost his last Senate bid to Bernie Moreno.
Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024, but not by enough to hold on to his seat. Much of the discussion on this closely examined race suggests it was Trump’s coattails that stopped Brown from getting a winning margin. That won’t be the case in a midterm battle.
Texas: “There is a civil war rolling through the Texas Republican Party right now,” said perennial candidate Beto O’Rourke. And he may not be wrong. While Texas has reliably elected GOP candidates for more than 30 years, a potentially damaging primary could open the way for an insurgent run. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is taking heat from Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom polling favors by a massive 16 points. Although both candidates are still determined to likely win against a Democratic contender, a bruising and ugly campaign could prove detrimental.
But it is not a one-way street. There is also the slim possibility that Republicans could pick up Senate seats currently held by Democrats.
Making Gains?
There are a lot of moving parts in this upcoming election cycle, and while Republicans are largely the party on the defensive, there are some seats currently held by Democrats that have poaching potential.
Georgia: Having opted for Trump in both 2016 and 2024, Georgia really is a swing state in many regards. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff barely won the election in 2021 after placing second behind Republican David Perdue in the first round of voting (in Georgia, a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote share). He prevailed in the runoff by 0.6%.
This will likely be the GOP’s chief target.
Michigan: A Glengariff Group/Detroit Regional Chamber poll from this month suggested Democrats will have quite the hill to climb to retain this key seat. Should former Rep. Mike Rogers win the GOP primary, polling shows that he beats all comers handily and is virtually tied with only one prospective candidate, current Rep. Haley Stevens.
The Democratic primary could be extremely damaging, however, with another declared candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, who is garnering significant endorsements from the likes of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA). Stevens has public support from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). This primary will come down to dominant ideologies within the party.
Minnesota: For the first time in 20 years, Minnesota will hold a Senate election without an incumbent on the ballot, as Tina Smith has declined to run again. Well known as a Democratic bastion, the state has not voted for a Republican president since Richard Nixon in 1972 – even managing to be the sole holdout in 1984 during Ronald Reagan’s 49-state blowout by backing hometown boy Walter Mondale. It’s a slim chance for Republicans here, but one they would be remiss to ignore.
Historically, Republicans are in for a rough ride. Of the last 20 midterm contests, the president’s party lost Senate seats 13 times and gained on just six occasions (with one contest bringing no change). Still, with this particular mix of states and candidates, the GOP could buck the trend.
And Something to Consider
While Kentucky is considered a perfectly safe seat, the retirement of Sen. Mitch McConnell presents a longshot opportunity for Democrats to break through the red wall. Since taking office in 1985, McConnell has been a driving force in the Republican Party and is the longest-serving Senate party leader in US history. And yet, Kentucky has proven that it is not a one-party state. Gov. Andy Beshear is a Democrat, as was his father, Steve Beshear, who served as governor from 2007 to 2015. In fact, of the last 20 governors, only four have been Republican.
This is not a state that balks at split tickets if the right candidate comes along. Toppling the GOP contender here would be a major win for the Democrats.
A Legacy on the Line
Trump is in an all-or-nothing situation with the 2026 midterm elections. If his party can maintain control of both chambers, Democrats will unlikely have another realistic shot until 2030. It’s one thing to build a legacy and an entirely different animal to maintain it. It appears that the president is fully committed to these elections and is willing to do whatever it takes to eliminate unpopular candidates in the upcoming primaries or to secure his preferred candidates' victories.
The results are unknowable this far out, and polling is sparse and unreliable. The stakes, however, have never been clearer.
*According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, these include Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, and Florida’s special election.
