The UK – the nation that once held the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine – is leading a group of Western nations now officially backing a Palestinian state. In what seemed a coordinated move, the UK, Australia, and Canada announced their formal recognition on Sunday, September 21.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again vowed “there will be no Palestinian state” in response. But now these three Western nations join more than 145 UN members that already recognize Palestine as a state, and several other countries – France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Malta – have said they will follow suit, likely in the next week. The US maintains the pro-Israel, pro-Jerusalem stance, but that list of Israeli supporters seems to be shrinking. What does this mean for the future of Israel as the nation continues its war on Hamas in Gaza? What does it mean for a world that seems inevitably to always get sucked into the political maelstrom that is the Middle East?
Casualties of Israel’s War on Hamas?
The UK-Canada-Australia announcement immediately precedes a special summit on the war in Gaza. On Monday, September 22, the UN General Assembly will meet in New York, where France and Saudi Arabia plan to lead a diplomatic initiative to revive the two-state solution – which they believe is the only viable path to peace.
The Israeli response was quick. Israel National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called for the immediate annexation of the West Bank and described the recognition as “a prize for the murderous Nukhba terrorists.” The Nukhbas were the Hamas unit in the October 7, 2023, raid in southern Israel. He further pledged “the complete dismantling of the Palestinian Authority” and promised to “submit a proposal for the application of sovereignty at the upcoming cabinet meeting.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “there will be no Palestinian state; this place belongs to us.”
Canada, Australia, and the UK have been strong allies of Israel for decades, but all three have also expressed frustration as the war against Hamas continued in spite of international outrage. One might say, then, that this growing support for an official state of Palestine is just one more casualty Israel suffers in its war in Gaza.
Hamas, as one might expect, declared victory for “the justice of our cause” after UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s announcement, The Telegraph reported. Though Starmer said specifically the move was not a reward for Hamas, Mahmoud Mardaw, a senior Hamas official, claimed it represents “a victory for Palestinian rights” and sends a “clear message.”
At present, only the United States and a handful of other countries don’t formally recognize the legitimacy of Palestine as an independent nation. An even smaller group actually recognizes Jerusalem (rather than Tel Aviv) as Israel’s capital. There are more than 100 embassies and consulates in Israel, but only the embassies of the United States, Guatemala, Honduras, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, and the Republic of Kosovo are located in Jerusalem. The bulk of the UN supports the two-state plan instead and refuses to recognize Jerusalem as belonging to Israel. Indeed, Australia was once on that shorter list but recanted its Israeli support on this issue back in 2022.
Peace With Palestine – Or an Escalation of Conflict?
What does this mean for Israel and the wider world, though? The Israeli response may well be an annexation of the West Bank and/or the closing of the consulates of the nations that recognize an independent state of Palestine – particularly France’s. In any case, reports out of Israel indicate Netanyahu won’t make a final decision until after his meeting with President Trump.
Rather than peace, the announcement that more Western nations now support a state of Palestine seems likely to ramp up the violence. Hamas certainly takes it as justification of their actions, and the rest of the Muslim Arab world seems to be on the same page. Saudi Arabia called any advancement in the West Bank by Israel a “red line” that would result in “major implications in all fields.” That’s certainly a problem for Israel and its allies. Remember, the Palestinian side doesn’t want to coexist with Israel, but to remove it entirely from the map.
As many threats and instances of saber rattling tend to be, the Saudi message is intentionally vague but sounds dangerous. Perhaps a bit less vague, however, is a promise from Pakistan. Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif promised Pakistan’s nuclear program will be “made available” to Saudi Arabia in a recently agreed-upon defense pact between the two countries, which defines an attack on either as an attack on both.
Whether the current conflict in the Middle East turns nuclear, then, seems to hinge on whether Israel’s campaign in Gaza leads to direct fighting with Saudi Arabia. Even if it doesn’t, though, European support for Palestine strains relationships with America, and that could have wide-ranging financial effects on NATO, the UN, and individual trade partners. Either way, the wider world seems poised to sink back into the chaos of Middle Eastern conflict.
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