Less than three months after taking office, the Biden administration raised the curtain on what would be the perpetual failure to gain a diplomatic upper hand over China. Over the last four years, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan were simply no match for their Chinese Communist Party (CCP) counterparts.
If there was any equilibrium establishing each country's equities, it quickly gravitated to the advantage of the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has, in the intervening Biden years, increased its worldwide military and economic presence, initiated continuous harassment of its neighbors in and around the South China Sea, became a menacing threat to Taiwan, and openly engaged the Philippines in warlike behavior over disputed shoals and reefs.
The Trump Effect Is Real
Enter President-elect Donald Trump. Emerging is a phenomenon where Trump's mere presence, Truth Social posting, or public address causes his words to become reality. It is the Trump Effect. Once he was declared the winner in the November election, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas started showing positive results. Before Trump took office on January 20, President Xi Jinping reached out to the incoming chief executive to open lines of communication early. It was, by all accounts, a cordial call. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the PRC reported:
"President Xi pointed out that it is natural for two big countries with different national conditions to have some disagreements. The important thing is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and find a proper solution. The Taiwan question concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US side needs to approach it with prudence. The bilateral economic ties are essentially mutually beneficial and win-win. Confrontation and conflict should not be an option for the two countries."
Of note is the reality that there is no "win-win" for the CCP as western nations understand the concept. For China, they win only if there is irrefutable evidence that the US has lost. Under the Biden administration, that evidence grew. So far, it appears that the trend has turned, if only slightly, in favor of the incoming administration. Consistent with the Trump Effect, "The past few days have shown a warmer side of the US-China relationship, which is expected to be one of the main focuses of Trump's second term," the Associated Press observed.
What faces the returning resident to the White House and his national security team is not a "pacing challenge," as the outgoing crowd euphemistically perceived China. The PRC is an economic and military threat. The new administration's Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State confirmation hearings signaled a strong, uncompromising approach to America's threats. Peter Hegseth, President Trump's choice for Defense Secretary, made crystal clear his intention to turn the currently misdirected US Armed Forces into the most formidable warfighting capability possible. Hegseth's focus will be reigniting the warrior mindset to ensure that the US can deter its enemies from conflict, but if not to soundly defeat them.
Redirecting the US military to address the most perilous circumstances, a nuclear standoff with China is critical. "After disappearing from debate over the last couple of decades, nuclear politics are set to return with a vengeance. China has begun an unexpected and secretive nuclear force buildup…China's shifting nuclear posture, the secrecy surrounding it, and the low likelihood of Chinese cooperation on arms control threaten stability in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond," Real Clear Defense explained. This emerging nuclear menace must be addressed as a national security imperative.
China Expansion Worldwide Should Be Troubling
The rapid hegemonic expansion of the PRC throughout the world is a move to push the US from prominence, and it has worked in many areas. Coping with a problem requires defining precisely what that problem is. Equally valid is the point that defeating an enemy requires knowing that enemy. President Trump's choice for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), explained in his confirmation hearing, "We welcomed the Chinese Communist Party into the global order, and they took advantage of all of its benefits and ignored its obligations and responsibilities. Instead, they have repressed, and lied, and cheated, and hacked, and stolen their way into global superpower status," Rubio explained. And they've "done so at our expense and the expense of the people of their country." During his testimony, Rubio warned: "If we stay on the road, we're on right now, in less than 10 years, virtually everything that matters to us in life will depend on whether China will allow us to have it or not."
Over the past four years, America has lost the momentum needed to achieve its national security objectives. China looms as the greatest threat to those objectives. In his first term, President Trump demonstrated a capability to be believed when he spoke, and his candid, forthright presence prevented global conflict. Going forward, it will be an uphill slog facing China and other threats. The Trump Effect will be put to the test.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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