Former President Donald Trump has won the 2024 election in what will no doubt be described as one of the most momentous political comebacks in modern history. When Pennsylvania was called for Trump in the early hours, it put him within striking distance of the 270 Electoral College votes required to win. He later passed the finish line by claiming Wisconsin to add to his battleground grabs of North Carolina and Georgia, making a total of 277. And his final tally may end up even higher. Notably, there are four states remaining, and he currently holds a lead in all of them:
Alaska – Trump +15.4% (73% counted)
Arizona – Trump +2.8% (54% counted)
Nevada – Trump +4.8% (84% counted)
Michigan – Trump +1.9% (94% counted)
And while this election has earned its place in the history books, just how significant is Mr. Trump's win, and what does the type of victory mean for his coming four-year term?
Two messages came from this highly anticipated election. The first is that Trump overperformed in rural areas while Harris underperformed in urban areas. The second is that political pundits do not have a handle on America’s demographic blocs.
Blame Game
It did not take long for the outward-looking introspection to begin. NBC insisted that Kamala Harris’ campaign was tainted by her connection to President Joe Biden, a tricky sell considering she was his vice president. And yet, gone was the language of how great the economy was under Biden, and in its stead was a blasé admitting that, of course, people voted for Trump when they were struggling so badly financially.
But an excuse that was not proffered, despite weeks of preparation, was that “old white men” were behind Kamala’s loss. And why might that be? It seems that Mr. Trump performed above expectations with various key demographics, from first-time voters to black men, and, probably more significantly, he was the beneficiary of a surge in support from Latino voters.
In fact, if – as Trump stated during his victory speech – he actually won the popular vote, it suggests that the groups the Harris campaign had explicitly targeted (black voters and women) were not motivated by the Democrats’ message.
It is also worth looking at the states that Donald Trump both won and lost to flesh out the overall picture.
Texas was almost certainly going to go red; the only question was by how much. In 2020, Trump won there by just under six points; in 2016, by nine. Last night, he pulled ahead by an enormous 14 points. It was a similar tale in Florida, where he expanded his 3-point 2016 win to 13 points.
Conversely, one could see the broad brush strokes of his win in places like New York and Illinois, where he cut down his 23-point loss in 2016 to just 11% in the former and his 17-point defeat to just eight in the latter.
There was, admittedly, some faint praise for his performance from networks that appeared on the verge of breakdown throughout the long night.
CNN’s Jake Tapper noted, “It is hard to think of a political comeback that is actually more significant than this one; I’m tempted to say Richard Nixon, but that really falls short of what Donald Trump has achieved.”
Another point of consideration is that CNN is discussing how Trump managed his campaign and suggesting that he essentially ran the campaign himself without relying on strategists to smooth his rougher edges. Rather than pass this oddity off as hubris, Tapper offered faint but pertinent praise. Indeed, it seems attitudes are changing quickly now that 45 is on his way to 47.
What a Difference One Day Makes
Within minutes of Trump claiming the win, heads of state worldwide rushed to offer Trump their best wishes. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has congratulated him on his “historic election victory” and insisted that “as the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed his positivity over the “new” relationship, saying together they can work “to advance peace through strength,” and that “Working together through NATO helps to deter aggression, protect our collective security and support our economies.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also keen to be one of the first to offer congratulations, saying:
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”
An Eye on the Future
The biggest question has to be: Where do Democrats go from here? The chorus of voices to end the Electoral College in favor of the popular vote may be a waning thing if Trump does indeed win both games. But electioneering is only the starting block of the lessons the Democratic Party must learn if it wants to become an effective force again.
Perhaps the most important lesson is to allow voters to choose a candidate and then have that candidate run through the challenging – but sharpening – bouts of competitive primaries that often act as a proving ground. Another lesson might be that running against a person rather than on a policy platform does not appeal to large chunks of the electorate.
Whatever lessons the party chooses to take on board, with Donald Trump’s historic comeback and phoenix-like resurgence, it is clear that the art of campaigning will never be the same again.
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