Ordinarily, the second term of an eight-year presidency tends to be frustrating and disappointing for the president and his allies. The problem faced by two-term presidents over the last 75 years – Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – is that, once re-elected, they immediately become lame ducks. With their agenda mostly complete and their power diminished, speculation about a successor begins to take center stage. By the time of their second inaugurations, presidential administrations tend to be running on empty, exhausted by the battles in the heady early days in office, when the possibilities of major achievements seemed well within their grasp.
The Two-Term Curse
There was good reason for the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, which limits the chief executive to eight years. It was ratified in 1951, six years after the longest presidency in history, that of Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was elected four times and served for 12 years before dying shortly after his final victory in 1944. The amendment was widely popular, based on the notion that a chief executive in power for too long might fancy himself more a king or a dictator than a president. But it has proven to be cold comfort for the six two-term presidents of the late 20th and 21st centuries.
Following re-election, Eisenhower spent much of his time on the golf course. Nixon was enveloped by scandal and forced to resign. Reagan was stung by Iran-Contra. Clinton was brought low by a sex scandal. Bush became all but irrelevant. Obama was reduced to his pen and his phone. But like most everything else about him, President-elect Trump is uniquely positioned to be different. While he faces a second term, it comes, for only the second time in American history, after a defeat for re-election. And it is increasingly clear that he is in a far better position now than he would have been if he had prevailed four years ago.
Had Trump won the disputed 2020 election, he would have faced gale-force headwinds in the midst of a first-in-a-century pandemic and the rise of a yet-to-be-discredited radical left doubling down on their commitment to his absolute destruction. He would likely have been forced to continue his reliance on the establishment figures who populated his cabinet and executive agencies during his first term. His victory would have been exceedingly narrow and accompanied by a loss of the popular vote, adding weight to inevitable cries of an illegitimate presidency and consequent protest, none of which occurred after November 5, 2024.
A Rare Opportunity for Trump
This time around, on top of his years of experience navigating the DC Swamp, Trump has had four more years to ponder how he would plot a very different course in a delayed second term. Crucially, he possessed evidence for all the world to see of the incompetence and failure of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, standing in stark contrast to the peace and prosperity of his time in the Oval Office. After securing a decisive, undisputed victory this year in both the electoral college and the popular vote – the first Republican in 20 years to do so - he is finally in a position to run his second administration the way he would have liked to in his first.
He now has reliable allies committed to his MAGA agenda. Instead of the failed Jeff Sessions or establishment Republican Bill Barr as Attorney General, he has long-time ally Pam Bondi. Remember Rex Tillerson, who crashed and burned as Secretary of State? This time, Trump selected Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl), a rival of his in 2016 with highly respected foreign policy bona fides. Pete Hegseth is his bold choice for Secretary of Defense, a far cry from James Mattis and Mark Esper, who both famously turned on Trump after leaving the administration. The list goes on.
Evidence of Trump’s race to fulfill his audacious pledge to re-invent the federal government in the space of four years is his insistence on recess appointments, which can bypass the advice and consent – in sum, the confirmation process – of the Senate. He has called for incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) to agree to simultaneously go into recess, creating the opening for him to place his most controversial appointees like Hegseth, Bobby Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard in place without senatorial consent. He is essentially sending the message that he is, as always, restless and can’t be bothered with all the time and effort necessary to satisfy members of the upper chamber of Congress, that he must be able to hit the ground running on day one of his second administration.
Newly elected presidents understand the crucial nature of their first two years in office, especially the precious first 100 days when they possess maximum leverage and political capital. They understand history, which repeatedly demonstrates the near certainty of losing congressional support in the subsequent mid-terms. By then, enough voters generally become either dissatisfied or regretful of their presidential vote and use their franchise to rein in the excesses of the administration or to vote for more balance of power. This is especially true when one party controls the White House and both chambers of Congress, as the GOP did in 2017 and will again in 2025. Trump learned that lesson the hard way after his first two years in the White House.
While most presidents obsess over their legacies as their days as leaders of the free world dwindle down to a precious few, Trump is behaving like a first-term president raring to go with grand plans for reform. Fresh from four years away from the office, he is demonstrating the vigor and energy that would hardly have been evident if he had survived the 2020 election.
The once and future president has been granted 1,460 days to institute his uniquely bold agenda of reforming government in profound ways to benefit the millions who have felt left out or betrayed, so he is not messing around. He doesn't have time for personal vendettas. He will only have time to institute long-necessary reforms to confirm that, as he said during the 2024 campaign, his revenge against his lengthy list of enemies will be encapsulated in one word: success.
The likes of Russiagate, two impeachments, January 6, and endless controversy have become distant memories for voters, many of who still object to his personality but recognize his ability to affect systemic reforms as no one else could. That is why Trump’s second term – instead of representing the faded remnants of a decade-long crusade – is likely to achieve profound reforms about which the previous two-term presidents could only dream.
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