In the first part of this Movers and Shakers series, we examined the highly watchable California jungle primary for the gubernatorial contest. In the second part, we looked at the lay of the land for the 2026 Senate election. Today, we’re going to dig deep into two of the highly competitive races that will determine the ultimate balance of power.
Behind the curtains of the American political realm, moves are already afoot to anoint, appoint, or even elect (wonder of wonders) the next generation of powerbrokers. These potential movers and shakers are already digging deep into campaign committees and PACs to position themselves for future success. And while the average American may be content to deal with the midterms in 2026, and the presidential contenders in another two years, the groundwork for ascension is already well underway.
The 2026 Races to Watch
There are 33 Senate seats up for election in 2026 (with an additional two special elections). As discussed in yesterday’s edition, 22 are currently held by the Republican Party, of which 19 are considered either “safe” or “likely” to remain in GOP control. For Democrats, 13 seats are going to the ballot, of which ten are almost certainly going to stay blue. That leaves six Senate contests that could decide who controls the upper chamber:
Georgia
Maine
Michigan
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio
Republicans currently hold 53 seats to 47 (including the two Independents who caucus with Democrats), meaning that a loss of four races would result in losing the majority. So just how close is the GOP to losing control? And could the party of Trump pick up any of the seats currently under the blue banner?
Georgia on Everyone’s Mind
The Peach State has been reliably red for a number of years, despite a presidential vote for Joe Biden in 2020 and Bill Clinton in 1992. In terms of its Senate preference, the incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff (elected in 2021) turned the tide in a shifting political environment. A Democrat occupied the seat for much of the last century until it went red in 2002. Ossoff scraped by with just over 1% to defeat David Perdue, less than a 60,000-vote margin. This is the quintessential “toss-up” race.
Polling has Ossoff ahead of the GOP’s early primary leader, Mike Collins, by an average of 2.3%, which, if replicated on Election Day, would prove a significant improvement on his 2021 result. However, his name recognition as the incumbent counts for a lot, and when the Republican candidate is finally decided, that lead could shrink. Remember, this is the only Democratic senator running in a state that Trump won in 2024.
The Maine Problem Is …
Sen. Susan Collins is hoping to retain her seat for a historic sixth term in Maine next November. There was some doubt over whether she would be running, but the latest news is that she is in it to win it. This is also classed as a toss-up race, but this time on the Republican side of the ledger. Democrats hoping to topple Collins are currently engaged in a bruising battle; leading the pack, however, is Graham Platner, closely followed by Gov. Janet Mills.
Currently, Platner appears to be ahead in the Democratic primary contest, which could prove problematic. Any skeletons in Mills’ closet have already been exposed – not so for Platner. In fact, just recently, he had to address questionable tattoos and past comments that could come back to haunt him once the race really begins. Collins didn’t win five terms in the Senate by being shy about leveraging an opponent’s damaging data.
And Then There Were Four
This leaves us with Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Michigan. Each presents an opportunity for a flipped seat. Tomorrow, we will dig deep into the races that matter.
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You can read part one on the California gubernatorial primary here.
Part two focuses on the Senate Showdown.
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