In the first part of this Movers and Shakers series, we examined the highly watchable California jungle primary for the gubernatorial contest. Today, we’re going to widen the aperture and see just who has the mojo when it comes to the 2026 Senate elections.
Behind the curtains of the American political realm, moves are already afoot to anoint, appoint, or even elect (wonder of wonders) the next generation of powerbrokers. These potential movers and shakers are already digging deep into campaign committees and PACs to position themselves for future success. And while the average American may be content to deal with the midterms in 2026, and the presidential contenders in another two years, the groundwork for ascension is already well underway.
2026 Senate Ahoy!
Next year will see all 435 House seats up for grabs, along with 33 Senate seats (plus two more as special elections), meaning the whole composition of the Capitol Hill crowd could change. While Republicans capitalized on Democrats having to defend more upper chamber seats in 2024, the virtual reverse comes in 2026. Of the Senate seats before the electorate, 22 are currently held by the GOP versus just 13 for Democrats. With a present majority of 53 to 47, the party of President Donald Trump has a tough hill to climb if it wants to retain its position.
However, only a few key races will decide who holds the power.
Safe or Scary?
Of the 13 seats now held by Democratic senators, nine are considered “safe.” Both the Cook Political Report and 270toWin have a high degree of confidence that these states will either send the incumbent Democrat back to DC or vote for the Democrat challenger in an open seat. The two outlets also agree that, of the 22 GOP-held seats, 17 will comfortably return the Republican candidate. That leaves a grand total of nine races that remain competitive.
But, of course, “competitive” covers a lot of sins.
Seats that are “likely” to remain firmly in the blue include Minnesota, where Democrat Tina Smith is expected to sail home, especially since her opposition outfit is finding it hard to get a weighty challenger on board. Although recent rumblings about the massive welfare fraud overlooked, ignored, or even tacitly accepted by state leadership could prove an October surprise.
For the GOP, the “likely” wins include Iowa, where Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, and Texas, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is locked in a bruising primary battle with state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn is currently topping Paxton in the primary polls by a mere 0.3%, however, the ultimate contender may have just been handed a political blessing.
Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett has decided to chase the Texas Senate seat, pushing out former contender Colin Allred. Indeed, her challenge is being widely hailed as a good thing for whoever ends up atop the GOP ticket. She is firmly progressive and keen to replicate Zohran Mamdani’s far-left New York City mayoral campaign. But Texas isn’t NYC, and her inability to rein in the insults (for example, calling wheelchair-bound Gov. Greg Abbott “hotwheels”) could prove a turnoff to Lone Star State dwellers. “Run Jasmine, run!” Cornyn posted on his X account.
And Then There Were Six
The remaining six seats will determine the ultimate balance of power. They include – in the red corner – Ohio (special election), North Carolina, and Maine. On the blue side of the ticket are New Hampshire, Georgia, and Michigan.
We’ll be examining each of these races tomorrow in the next edition of Movers and Shakers.
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You can read part one on the California gubernatorial primary here.
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