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Newly minted UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has triggered alarm bells across the nation by suggesting — at least tacitly — that the Brexit referendum result be undone. What is still regarded as the greatest democratic exercise Britain has ever engaged in is on the ropes as senior figures begin the careful massaging of an EU reunification message.
Burnham stated openly that he wants to see the UK rejoin the EU. This, despite the fact that when on the campaign trail just a few short months ago, he assuaged voters’ concerns, saying that the rejoining debate shouldn’t even be had — how times have changed. More than 17 million people voted “leave” in the 2016 referendum, more people than have ever voted for anything in the nation’s history, but the PM believes he can reset the agenda. He said the UK could “go all the way” back in, but it seems likely this won’t be another referendum.
Indeed, the PM sees the end of Brexit through a very different lens.
A Brexit Mandate?
The core message right now is that his ruling Labour Party would put rejoining the European Union as part of its election manifesto. Meaning that if he wins a majority, that would be the mandate to take the country back in. However, winning a general election requires far fewer votes than the more than 50% won in 2016.
Former PM Keir Starmer won the 2024 election (whose term is now being served by Burnham) with just 33% of the national vote; that’s roughly nine and a half million votes. Due to the complexities of a multi-party system, it is possible that Labour could win the next election with even fewer votes.
A More in Common poll from earlier this year had Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party almost winning a majority (324 seats — one seat short) on just 28% of the vote. And of course, in a parliamentary system where coalitions are becoming more and more likely, Mr. Burnham’s party might fall well short of getting the 325 seats required and still form a coalition with other parties that favor rejoining the EU. That’s not exactly what one might describe as a sweeping mandate for the most fundamental change in British politics in the last 100 years.
The Messaging Has Begun
Just two weeks ago, the PM announced that Russia had interfered with the Brexit referendum, leaning heavily into the implication that the only reason Britain voted to leave was that gullible voters were swayed by Kremlin propaganda — he even declared that he had seen the evidence. He was forced to backtrack when the security services pooh-poohed his stance. But that hasn’t stopped senior figures from pushing the envelope.
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner argued on a recent TV appearance that her party would be seeking the “best deal for Britain,” with regard to the “free movement of people” EU policy. She continued:
“I would like us to have an honest conversation about what the trade-offs could be and then put that to the people at a general election… The prime minister is clear that you can’t take anything off the table when you’re having a conversation.”
Other figures within Labour have also started singing from the same hymn sheet. And it’s not just the PM’s party.
Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are in favor of rejoining the EU. This matters because they share a voter base with Labour. If Burnham can poach these voters for the next election cycle (which is in the PM’s purview to call), such tactical voting could be the key ingredient in winning a majority.
Not the EU You Knew
Burnham et al. feel confident that the public will back them. After all, the ten years since the Brexit vote have not exactly been sunlit uplands for the UK. Brexiteers argue that the promise of the referendum was never delivered because the people in charge of managing the exit were Remain campaigners. But there are two key points to keep in mind.
First, the European Union nations have not exactly been living high on the hog. In fact, Britain has outperformed its Euro neighbors economically, and has — so far — avoided the brutal riots taking place on the continent. And second, whatever deal the EU would offer the UK is highly unlikely to be the same as it was a decade ago.
There will be no rebate (originally negotiated under Margaret Thatcher), free movement of people will be a must (at a time when the country is riven by mass illegal immigration), the UK may have to ditch the pound and adopt the sclerotic euro, and industry rules on all businesses will be mandatory (even for those who don’t trade with the EU).
More than 17 million Brits voted to leave the EU, 52%. Andy Burnham plans to take the nation back in with whatever number of ballots he can scrape together; polling suggests around ten million if he gets lucky. The referendum was billed as a once-in-a-lifetime vote, and reneging on the largest democratic exercise in the nation’s history. And it opens a Pandora’s Box of options for what any future party might choose to do if it has a “mandate.”
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