As Pete Hegseth faces the Armed Services Committee in an effort to secure his bid to be secretary of defense today (Jan. 14), there’s an undercurrent of fear on both sides of the political divide. The former Fox News personality is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for a string of upcoming nominees, and he is arguably one of the most contentious.
Peril in the Process
Despite wide reporting that Senate Majority Leader John Thune told President-elect Donald Trump “Hegseth has the votes” – a simple majority required -- the hurdles to get to that vote remain high. Before facing the full Senate, Hegseth must deal with the committee. Chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-RI) were briefed by the FBI last Friday as part of the standard protocol, and they must determine what information to share with the other members.
The full committee must then decide what kind of report to send to the Senate. These findings tend to fall into three categories: favorable, unfavorable, or without recommendation. Depending on the outcome, the nominee might withdraw from consideration rather than face a trouncing. Notably, the only time a nominee (from a new president, which is technically Trump’s position) was defeated during a full vote was under George H.W. Bush when former Sen. John Tower fell at the final obstacle.
Seeking the position of secretary of defense, Tower failed with a 53 to 47 shutout amid accusations of drinking and womanizing. Déjà vu, anyone?
Hegseth Under Fire
There is most certainly fiery opposition within the Democratic ranks on the committee. Reed, the only member to have met with Hegseth, stated that the meeting “did not relieve my concerns about Mr. Hegseth’s lack of qualifications and raised more questions than answers.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has made her position abundantly clear: "Your confirmation as Secretary of Defense would be detrimental to our national security and disrespect a diverse array of service members who are willing to sacrifice for our country."
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) took a brutal swipe at the nominee, saying:
“I do not see how this committee can, in good conscience, consider Mr. Hegseth’s nomination without a full review of his conduct while leading these organizations [veterans groups] – the only civilian management experience of his career.”
He further argued that Hegseth “refuses to make himself available to meet with me and my Democratic colleagues in advance of his nomination hearing” -- a claim that the candidate in question denies vehemently. He responded that he had made efforts to speak to the Democrat members starting well before Thanksgiving. An aide responded, “This is partisan blustering designed to slow down the confirmation process at a time when it’s incredibly critical that President Trump has his national security team in place on day one.”
The question arises: Does Hegseth even need Democrat support?
Senate Math
The current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, meaning Hegseth can afford to lose three GOP votes, and then the decision becomes a tiebreaker at the hands of the Senate president, presumably JD Vance, if the vote takes place on or after Jan. 20. But will Hegseth get complete support from the majority party?
Most GOP senators appear to be on board with his nomination – or at least have not spoken negatively toward it – but it only takes a small handful to sink the whole show. All eyes have been on Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, who will almost certainly ask Hegseth about his views on women in combat roles. She has, however, been measured in her public statements, carefully not committing to a final answer. However, a greater consideration is at play for the senators looking to carry out their advise and consent duty.
Being the first big Cabinet position before committee comes with its benefits and drawbacks. For the GOP, senators will want to come out of the gate strong in terms of getting Trump’s nominations confirmed; taking too long would be both publicly embarrassing for the 47th president and politically damaging for a Congress that doesn’t want to be relegated to the minority come 2026.
The Test
Indeed, while some Republican senators may have genuine misgivings about Hegseth in the role of secretary of defense, showing a united front on this first notable candidate could dampen later attacks against those whom they see as more palatable. After all, the logic goes for the opposition that if the GOP is willing to unite and push Hegseth over the finish line, further resistance to less controversial candidates may just be a waste of time and effort. And worse for the minority party, the public could see the senators as operating from a purely obstructionist base.
So what do Senate Democrats want to achieve? The reality is that even if Hegseth follows the ignoble path of Tower, President Trump would not suddenly decide that what is needed is a middle-of-the-road “moderate.” If congressional Democrats can derail one candidate, it will spur them to try to derail more and, perhaps more importantly, make Fourth Estate hay. One can imagine the headlines extolling the power of “committed Democrats” even in opposition!
A clue to the party’s game plan was delivered by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) last week at a caucus lunch where he instructed colleagues to not hold back on questioning nominees over Trump’s agenda. Having failed to convince voters that Project 2025 was Trump’s real platform, this is a second bite of the poison apple. Be prepared to hear the words “Project 2025” repeated ad nauseum.
But why?
Put simply, these confirmation hearings and floor votes are the best opportunity Democrats have for political theater now that they have lost control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress. If they can’t produce change, they will produce soundbites.
Hegseth is the test case for just how much embarrassment and how many headlines congressional Democrats can create from the confirmation process. If the power balance were reversed, it seems likely that Republicans would be doing the same thing. But it is a political tightrope walk. If Dems push too hard, the GOP may coalesce and force through every nomination regardless of suitability or qualms.
Great statesman and leader Winston Churchill, “Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.” The as-yet-unveiled leadership of the Democratic Party has an opportunity to show how well it can maneuver in this new GOP-led environment. But if all the recriminations coming across the airwaves is any indication, it may be the hypothetical slaughter. The question remains: Who will be on the receiving end?
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