With just four days to go before a small slice of the American electorate casts ballots, what do the latest polls say? And what news – if any – can change what seems like a tranche of inevitable outcomes? It looks like one of the big races has turned on its head, and another is starting to look pretty interesting.
Race Flipped?
It has been a roller-coaster ride for the two contenders hoping to be the attorney general of Virginia in 2026. Democratic candidate Jay Jones still maintains a slight
polling average lead of 0.2%, but if we narrow the aperture to just the last ten days, a whole different picture emerges. In fact, in every one of the six most recent surveys, Republican incumbent Jason Miyares tops each one. An average of these six gives him a lead of 3.8% – that’s outside the usual margin of error.
It will still be a close race, but the Jay Jones political implosion is a fine example of what happens when your allies are willing to forgive all sins. The public just doesn’t like it.
Also in Virginia
The big prize up for grabs is the governor’s mansion in the Old Dominion. Despite being on the campaign trail with Jay Jones, Democratic hopeful Abigail Spanberger appears untouched by his scandal. In fact, her lead over GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears seems to be growing.
Currently, Spanberger averages a 7.9% advantage, a position that has not changed much since polling for this race began. Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling tool shows that Winsome Earle-Sears has been trailing since way back in August. Unless something major happens on November 4, this race is a done deal.
Closing the Gap?
In the closely watched New Jersey gubernatorial race, Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli seems to be gaining on Democratic competitor Mikie Sherrill. There is still a mountain to climb, but the GOP contender has a history of overperforming the polls. The current average has Sherrill leading by 5.2%, which may look like an insurmountable lead, but the country's mood could make a big impact on election day.
Ciattarelli is making waves and continuing his campaign with marked confidence. Appearing yesterday evening at a Fox News town hall, the GOP candidate explained his potential first action in office: "Executive order number one, on day one, no town in this state will be a sanctuary city, we will not be a sanctuary state." He continued:
"Many of the things that [Gov. Phil] Murphy has done were by executive order. They weren’t codified by the legislature, which means I can reverse them on day one.
"Having sanctuary cities and us being a sanctuary state encourages illegal immigration, and it handcuffs our local police in certain ways; we’re not doing that. I'm going to reverse that on day one."
A Harvard/Harris poll conducted in early October suggests that the ongoing deportations of illegal aliens are largely popular, especially when those deported have criminal records. The survey showed 56% of registered voters approve of the deportation efforts, rising to 78% support for removing criminal illegals. It’s a rich vein to mine – and, notably, the almost complete reverse of Sherrill’s stance.
New York City State of Mind
Death, Taxes, and a Zohran Mamdani landslide in New York City on November 4: All seem to be things on which a level of certainty exists. Despite a wealth of old footage, brazen statements, and highly improbable promises, it seems little can stop the momentum of the Democratic candidate and avowed socialist from grabbing the keys to Gracie Mansion. LNN’s Public Square has him with a clear 17-point lead over independent candidate, former Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Elections Abound
While many of the outcomes seem almost certain for now – especially with a huge chunk of early votes already cast – everything depends on November 4 and who turns up to the polling stations. Liberty Nation News will track everything that happens and will keep you informed of the latest news and any fresh data. And don’t forget to get the latest data at Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling tool.
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