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Donald Trump may have promised $5,000 checks for folks if Republicans keep Congress after the midterms – but what happens if they don’t? We can probably predict, at least in a very general sense, how it will go should Democrats take one or both chambers. What will almost certainly not happen, however, is any significant legislation – especially the various bills Democrats are already working on to curb executive power. With blue majorities in the House and Senate, Trump becomes a veto president.
Democrats Are Winning – In the Polls, at Least
A quick look at the most common polls reveals what sure looks like bad news for Trump and Republicans. When it comes to presidential job approval, Trump is pretty universally underwater. Morning Consult shows an approval rating of just 41% to 57% disapproval as of Monday, October 5. Rasmussen Reports has it at 43% to 56%, with more than half of respondents saying America is on the wrong track. Liberty Nation News’ The Public Square, which collects and averages many national polls each day, shows an average of just over 38% presidential approval to about 60% disapproval.
When it comes to Congress, the LN average shows Democrats are favored over Republicans in general. A look at the actual post-election forecasts shows something similar: The 270toWin consensus, based on seven different forecasters from FiftyPlusOne and the Cook Political Report to betting markets like Kalshi, shows Democrats retaking the House 220 to 200 with just 15 races not predicted. And the Senate could go either way, according to the same forecasters. Democrats are leading slightly 48-47, with five races not predicted – though Kalshi is a bit more confident with a final count of 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.
But those are the polls and betting markets, with outcomes largely affected by said polls. They are not actual ballots cast. Reality, come Election Day, can – and often does – look quite different. Just ask Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris how true that is. Still, the general consensus at the moment seems to be that Democrats will retake the House and quite possibly the Senate as well. So let’s game it out. What happens if Congress turns blue?
Hand Cramps All Around – And Very Little to Show for It
A lot of signatures are going to hit paper with a blue legislature under a Trump White House – and it won’t be laws or political appointments. Democrats are already busy writing proposals to curb presidential power and undo the work Trump and the GOP have done over the last two years. But without a veto-proof two-thirds majority in both houses, approximately zero of them will become law. The president’s veto hand will, however, get quite the workout over the next two years.
A Democratic majority in the Senate seems unlikely to continue confirming Trump’s nominees – which could be most inconvenient for Republicans should a Supreme Court justice retire or pass away. There are four over 70. More likely, though, the less friendly Senate would affect the president’s tendency to turn over his Cabinet. Two years in and he’s on his second attorney general this term.
Of course, if Democrats take over the House, we already know their first priority: impeachment, again. And quite likely again and again. They made Trump the first president in US history to be impeached twice with absolutely no shot at a Senate conviction; there’s no reason to assume they won’t go for a third or even fourth round starting in 2027. What high crimes or misdemeanors will they cite? White House renovations, war in Iran, renaming bodies of water, befriending Israel, just being Trump in general – take your pick; Democrats proved during his first term that pretty much anything will suffice.
But, of course, even a dozen more successful impeachments under a blue House won’t mean removal without a two-thirds conviction vote in the Senate. And Trump isn’t up for re-election in 2028 – but the House Democrats who seem almost certain to choose once again to chase impeachment will be.
And that might be the biggest danger to Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Winning either chamber – and especially both – could harm their chances of ending up with a blue trifecta in 2029. Whatever they do in the second half of Trump’s presidency will look like political theater and virtue signaling. Without a friendly White House to rubber-stamp it, their legislative agenda is grounded. And impeachment is all but guaranteed to fail in the Senate.
When 2028 rolls around, Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don’t after two years of congressional control. After being sent in to make a change by the electorate, they’ll find themselves campaigning against Republicans in 2028 who get to point either at two years of nothing or two years of vicious, petty political attacks. Either way, the Democrats’ best shot at taking the White House in 2028 might just be failing to retake Congress in 2026.
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