Are tariffs appearing in pockets of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI)? Yes. Are the levies resulting in a spike in the aggregate inflation level? So far, not materially – but that does not mean it will not happen. One area that critics feared would be particularly hard hit by higher import duties was smartphones. And yet, it is all quiet on the Silicon Valley front.
Tariffs and the iPhone
Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box this week, Apple CEO Tim Cook made quite the admission. “There’s no increase for tariffs in the prices, to be totally clear,” Cook told host Jim Cramer.
Now, here is the $64,000 question: Is this because tariffs do not raise prices, or is it because the tech juggernaut is absorbing the costs? It is mainly the latter.
The iPhone maker confirmed in the previous earnings report that it is absorbing hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff-related costs each quarter. During the current three-month period, Apple is facing more than $1 billion in losses from President Donald Trump's higher import duties.
Still, the tech behemoth did the unthinkable. Market analysts had anticipated Apple would raise the price for its new iPhone 17 lineup by as much as $100. However, to remain competitive in the domestic smartphone market, Apple ate the tariffs for American consumers.
It is not only the iPhone price tag that is not budging. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the August CPI report that smartphone prices declined 0.2% last month and are down almost 14% year over year. It may take time for levies to work their way through the marketplace. For now, consumers can find relief at their local communications providers.
A Surprise Jump in Import Prices
Prices for foreign merchandise arriving at America's ports unexpectedly climbed last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Import prices rose 0.3% in August from a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in the previous month. This came in higher than economists' expectations of a 0.1% decline. The 12-month rate came in at 0% after three straight months of negative readings.
Export prices also surged at a higher-than-expected monthly pace of 0.3% from an upwardly adjusted 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices increased to 3.4% from 2.4%.
So, what do these numbers tell us about potential consumer and producer inflation?
First, non-fuel imports accounted for all of the gains, rising 0.4%, the largest since April 2024. Fuel import prices, meanwhile, plummeted more than 10% amid declines in natural gas and petroleum prices. Second, capital goods, consumer goods, and automobiles experienced notable price increases. Finally, foreign exporters refrained from passing on President Trump's tariffs to their customers, as they refrained from lowering their own costs.
Stephen 'Minority' Miran
The Federal Reserve concluded its September policy meeting, following through on a quarter-point cut to the benchmark federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, voted 11-1 in favor of a modest 25-basis-point reduction. The lone dissenting vote? Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who recently transitioned from the White House to the US central bank.
In a September 19 interview with CNBC's Money Movers, Miran defended his decision to advocate a half-point rate cut at the monthly powwow, noting that he was in the "minority" at the Eccles Building.
"I’m clearly in the minority in not being concerned about inflation from tariffs. But that was also true in 2018-2019, and I think I probably could take a little victory lap about that," Miran stated. "There will always be relative price changes, but whether or not it’s inflation that’s macroeconomically significant of the type that monetary policy should respond to is a different question."
Miran added that he sees "no evidence" of any "material inflation from tariffs." He pointed to the import data as evidence, asserting that "if you thought tariffs are driving inflation higher, you’d think imports would be differentially inflating at a higher pace.” Apple’s iPhone is primarily manufactured in India and China, and the smartphone has not crippled consumers’ wallets.
When the Fed convenes its next two-day policy meeting in October, will Miran be the lone vote championing a 50-basis-point interest rate cut? Most likely.
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