It has often been said that politics makes for strange bedfellows. With Kamala Harris destined to be confirmed as the Democratic Party’s official presidential nominee tonight and announce her running mate by tomorrow, and with the general election just three months away, rarely has this saying been more accurate. Harris is beginning to catch up to Donald Trump in the polling and has even enjoyed more success in courting anti-Trump Republicans than Biden did before he dropped out of the race. Meanwhile, her own party now seems split on who she should pick to be her vice president, with any of the expected choices guaranteed to enrage either progressives or moderates.
Kamala Plays Catch-Up
Before Biden dropped out of the race, he was trailing Trump significantly in battleground states – and, in those first days after the president did end his campaign, Kamala Harris didn’t seem to be doing any better in the polls than her boss.
Today, however, things are a bit different.
The most recent polls show that Harris has closed the gap with Trump and is now polling at 50% nationally and in swing states, making the November election much more of a toss-up than it seemed to be just a week ago. The RCP Average from RealClearPolitics shows Trump and Harris neck-and-neck at 47.7% to 46.9%.
At the individual level, however, different pollsters showed various results – no doubt the differences stem from some wording questions in a way that pushes the answer in one direction while also reaching out to more respondents of a certain political affiliation. For example, Daily Kos had Harris up four points nationally, leading Trump 49% to 45%. Rasmussen Reports, on the other hand, showed Trump up five points with 49% to Kamala’s 44% just one day later. Neither of those results is likely a surprise to those who follow the polls of either organization.
On Sunday, August 4, CBS published poll results showing that Harris is tied with Trump in battleground states while leading him by one point nationally at 50% to 49%. If accurate to the actual voting population, the CBS survey shows the race is about as close as it can get. The really interesting thing, however, was the change in voter enthusiasm. More Democrats now say they will definitely vote than when asked before on July 18, up to 85% from 81%. In that same time, the number of Republican respondents who say they’ll definitely vote dropped slightly from 90% to 88%. Black Americans and women also reported they were more likely to vote now that the old white man with the failing memory has been replaced on the Democratic ticket by a younger woman of color.
But the bump Harris has seen in the polls (not to mention fundraising) could be more complicated than it may seem at first glance.
Republicans for Harris?
On Sunday, August 4, The Harris campaign boasted that nearly 30 GOP members had joined the new “Republicans for Harris” initiative. Former Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois is on the list – surprise, surprise. Before leaving the House, Kinzinger developed a habit of voting alongside Democrats more frequently than with his own party, and he has long been a vocal critic of Donald Trump. Many of the names on the list – which was posted to X – are equally unsurprising. Kinzinger was joined by 27 other Republicans who were once representatives, governors, secretaries, and even White House staffers.
It may be worth noting, however, that no name explicitly mentioned on the list represents someone currently holding the office that made them nationally known to begin with. Harris may be pulling some major support from former GOP office holders who simply can’t stomach Trump, but their status as has-beens suggests the common Republican voter may not share their sentiments.
Win Some, Lose Some
On the other hand, Harris stands to alienate a large swath of her party when she picks a running mate – seemingly regardless of who she chooses. The Vice President spent Sunday meeting with the three leading contenders: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota.
Various donors, interest groups, and other politicians within the party have reportedly been circulating memos and lobbying for their picks. On the progressive side, Governor Shapiro is the weakest link, though the leftwing Democrats aren’t fans of Senator Kelly, either. Shawn Fain, president of the United Automobile Workers union, said Sunday that the union was concerned about his commitment to pro-labor legislation and that the organization had even bigger issues with Shapiro’s support for school vouchers.
A group of leftist donors called the Democracy Alliance has expressed concerns about Shapiro, as has another group of progressive activists called Gamechanger Salon. One of the primary concerns raised in the latter email group was Shapiro’s support of Israel – and whether or not calling him “Genocide Josh” would be antisemitic since he’s Jewish. Billy Wimsatt, executive director of the liberal donor group Movement Voter Project, said that Shapiro could cause an issue with voter turnout. “He risks significantly depressing enthusiasm for the Harris ticket among key constituencies of young voters, Arab and Muslim voters, and to some degree labor,” Wimsatt wrote. He went on to call Minnesota’s Tim Walz “the perfect Harris VP unicorn.”
Shapiro is, however, a favorite among pro-Israel voters and donors, as well as other moderates who are more business friendly or support school choice. He is believed by many to be the most likely choice, though that will irritate the progressive wing as much as shunning him will the moderates. Either way, she can’t please everyone, and that could result in some serious turnout issues come Election Day.
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