There has been quite a bit of political chatter regarding the black and Hispanic voting blocs in the upcoming election. Several polls have indicated the two demographic groups, both longtime, bedrock Democratic Party voters, are thinking of taking a walk on the wild side. A new Gallup Poll has confirmed such a shift, and the results are alarming for those on the left.
Here's the money quote: "The Democratic Party's wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans' party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years." This is the bottom line from Gallup. Twenty points in a single demographic is saying something. Worse still for the Democratic Party is the sample size: 12,145 Americans over age 18 from two combined Gallup surveys. In pollster language, that's one heck of an extensive poll. Most nationwide political surveys are based on a sample of 1,000 people. The reliability of this report – a margin of error of just one percent and a 95% confidence level – is also much higher than that of the standard national poll.
Gallup Poll – Black, Hispanic Voters Jumping Ship
This is not to say the Democrats aren't still popular with both voting subgroups, but they are entering historically low territory. According to Gallup, the Democratic Party enjoyed a 66-point lead over the GOP among blacks just last year – but now it has sharply declined to 47%.
Regarding Hispanic voters, the Gallup poll noted Democrats registered a "12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023," which they say is a "new low.” In 2020, that advantage was 28%.
The big question is how these significant shifts in party identification will affect the upcoming presidential election. In order to look forward, we need to look back.
In 2016, an NBC exit poll survey reported Donald Trump with 8% of the black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. This was up from the GOP standard bearer, Mitt Romney in 2012, who received 6% from blacks and 27% from Hispanics. In 2020, Trump overperformed in both demographic subgroups, capturing 12% of the African American vote and 32% of the Hispanic vote, according to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
Despite the increase, Trump has still been crushed by the weight of Joe Biden's numbers in these two voting categories. In 2020, 87% percent of blacks and 65% of Hispanics voted for Mr. Biden. But this time around, things are shaping up differently. The 2024 Biden camp is feeling the heat, knowing that it must shore up the vote with both subgroups to secure a victory. In December, Axios reported the president's campaign was intent on making "surgical trips to minority communities in 2024." Even left-leaning outlets such as Vox are worried that Biden won't be able to perform as well as he did last time around with both demographic groups.
Just how important are these two voting blocs in the upcoming presidential contest? Liberty Nation Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner opined:
"Put simply, Joe Biden cannot win this time around without at least as much support from blacks and Hispanics as he received in his narrow electoral win in 2020. And his approval numbers in both demographic groups are – and have been for some time – downright catastrophic, as they would be for any Democrat. It is unclear what, if anything, such a feeble candidate can do to recapture the huge majorities among minorities that are vital to victory for his party. But whatever his strategy, he had better implement it immediately, or the jig is up.”
Before Republicans become too giddy about the party shift tallied by Gallup, it's vital to remember that a key demographic leaning toward a different party might not necessarily turn into a vote for likely GOP nominee Donald Trump. This could translate into votes for independent or third-party candidates or even just a lower voter turnout, which is what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016. By all accounts, Team Trump this time around is running a much tighter campaign than in 2020; if so, it would be wise for them to capitalize on this Gallup poll and turn the blacks and Hispanics disenchanted with the Democrats into newly minted Trump voters.
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