Political Horse Race: One Less Path to Victory for Biden

According to the betting markets, Ohio may also be tilting towards Trump. Polling in the state gives Biden an average lead of over three percent, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows something more interesting. Small sample size polls tend not to be reflective, and in the polling community are considered of less worth than those with larger respondent pools. If we take the polls from the last 30 days and remove any with a sample size of under 1,000, then President Trump actually comes away with a four-point lead. What this means for the hopeful Biden is that his path to victory is narrowing. If he wants to claim the White House, he will need to win every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and flip four of the larger populous states. With Florida and Texas looking beyond his reach, and Ohio also an extremely long shot, Biden needs to go all-in on the remaining five possible swing states. But could this approach cost him in other areas?

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 47% ( + 1% )
• Congress - 15% ( - 3% )

Senate Map:

When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here's a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
• Toss Up: 8

The states that are a toss-up include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Of these, the latest polling indicates that Republicans will win five and Democrats will win three, giving a 51/49 split in favor of the GOP.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Texas

• Republicans - 1/4
• Democrats - 5/2

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 11/8

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/10
• Republicans - 5/1

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Maine

• Democrats - 1/7
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 2/7
• Republicans - 11/4

North Carolina

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Ohio

• Republicans - 4/7
• Democrats - 5/4

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 8/15
• Republicans - 11/8

Presidential Election:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

• 270 - 299 = 5/1
• 180-269 = 5/1
• 300 - 329 = 6/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.