Political Horse Race: Is Bloomberg the Democrat Terminator?

The Candidates' Market Report

Surely this should have been the week that President Trump finally tanks in the polls; surprisingly not. He finished two points up on last week with a brief 50% flirtation before the weekend. Recent polling shows that 49% of voters think it's unlikely that Congress will find actual evidence of wrongdoing compared with 44% who think it will. The country seems just as divided as Congress. The fact that Trump is still picking up approval points shows that firstly, talk of impeachment is failing to resonate with the Trump base, and second, that not even those who plan to vote Democrat are convinced of his guilt. The televised testimony this coming week may change all this, but expect Congress to lose a couple of points in the process.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 47% ( + 2%)
• Congress - 22% ( no change)

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Elizabeth Warren - 17/10
• Joe Biden - 3/1
• Pete Buttigieg - 5/1
• Bernie Sanders - 5/1
• Andrew Yang - 11/1
• Michael Bloomberg - 12/1
• Hillary Clinton - 14/1
• Kamala Harris - 25/1

When Michael Bloomberg, former NYC mayor, filed papers for the Alabama primary, the betting odds exploded. Those in the top tier felt a flash of fear, and the outliers began rubbing their hands with glee at a possible VP spot. Leaping in at 11/1 (and later dropping a point), Bloomberg has the potential to take on pretty much all other candidates. Biden and Buttigieg, known as the moderates are the easiest targets to pick off. Biden embroiled in controversy, and Mayor Pete without any big-show experience outside of South Bend, Indiana. Somewhat more difficult will be those on the extreme left of the party, Warren and Sanders. Bernie managed to climb back two points this week but will it last? HIs bump has more to do with Warren coming under fire for her poorly-presented plans on Medicare-for-all, rather than any growing appeal for the Vermont Socialist. Warren on the other hand, despite being in teh top spot for the Democratic nomination, is falling behind in her odds of winning the White House. It looks like voters just don't see her as being able to take on President Trump. The danger for the DNC is not that voters won't want another wealthy businessman in the top spot, it's that the already divided party will never coalesce around a late-coming candidate who has struck down their preferred choice.

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Impeachment - 1/6
• Resignation - 5/1
• The Queen to ban Trump from the UK - 100/1
• Trump & Putin to take a Vacation together during Donald's 1st Presidential Term - 25/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.