Not Canada, but Alberta – That’s Where the Wealth Is

by F. Andrew Wolf, Jr.

Thousands of Albertans have been holding rallies and signing petitions to vote for separation from Canada. The Liberals just achieved their fourth consecutive win in the country that Donald Trump wants to make the 51st state. The people of Alberta have a long-standing complaint – Ottawa treats them unfairly while reaping enormous economic benefit from oil and gas resources. While the call for a “divorce” from Canada is not new, it has regained momentum in the wake of the election.

The US President should pay attention to these rumblings. Number 51 should be the province of Alberta – it makes more sense for America economically than Canada – especially now with the latter’s reinforced political resentment towards the president.

According to a recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute, 3 in 10 Albertans would vote to leave Canada. Jeff Rath, a Canadian constitutional lawyer and advocate for Alberta's separation from Canada, will soon lead a delegation of like-minded Albertans to Washington, DC, for meetings with senior Trump administration figures.

Joining forces with the US could make sense for both countries; Alberta holds the third-largest oil reserves in the world, trailing only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Moreover, it sits atop rich deposits of coal, lithium, and other critical minerals that America (i.e. Trump) is actively seeking.

Rath’s plan to meet with White House officials has also caught the attention of high-profile voices on the American right. Conservative advocate Charlie Kirk posted a video in March of Rath agitating for annexation with the remark: “Okay, if Alberta wants to become the 51st state, that’s a decent idea.” Elon Musk agreed.

The western province could hold a public referendum on breaking away from Canada next year if a citizen-led petition gets the required number of signatures, Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith said Monday.

Alberta, with a population of roughly 5 million, borders on the US state of Montana and is a key driver of Canada's economy. It’s the leading producer of fossil fuels for the nation, accounting for 84% of total crude oil production and 61% of total natural gas production in 2023. In 2024 Alberta was second only to Ontario in terms of GDP growth, while its per capita GDP is the highest of all of Canada's provinces.

Trade with the United States made up 89% of the province’s exports in 2023. Last year alone, Alberta exported $156.3 billion south to the US. Crude petroleum made up the majority of those exports, totaling $113.4 billion, or 73%.

Nationally, the US is Canada’s largest foreign customer, accounting for $595 billion in 2023 – 89% of total exports – according to ATB Economics.

Yet it's the data just presented that works against Alberta's secession – Ottawa will be loathe to permit such action. It will not want to sever from its sovereignty much of the wealth responsible for the Canadian economy.

This means nothing will happen without US influence, US capital, and considerable attenuation of Trump's rhetoric. But it would be a good fit along with Greenland. Just as the latter provides access to the Arctic, Alberta offers abundant natural resources and a conservative populace.

Although the province is considered a conservative stronghold, under Canada's decade-long Liberal leadership, Ottawa has blocked pipelines, canceled multiple oil and gas projects, and introduced a carbon tax – policies that Smith described as “anti-energy, anti-agriculture, and anti-resource development.”

Only one province has ever held referenda on separating from Canada: Quebec, in 1980 and 1995, both of which showed a majority of Québécois preferred to remain – but only after a huge and caustic political upheaval.

The bitter feelings can be traced back to the 1980s, when then-Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program tried to centralize control over Albertan oil. Albertans, who had enjoyed an economic boom thanks to high oil prices, felt as though their natural wealth was being pillaged by Ottawa, which lowered prices to benefit poorer Canadians. Although the program was ended by Trudeau’s Conservative successor, Brian Mulroney in 1985, the wounds never fully healed.

Recently, Smith’s government has introduced legislation to lower the threshold for referendums initiated by citizen petition. In order to pass the threshold, a petition would need about 177,000 signatures.

But leaving is not as easy as voting in favor of a referendum. Albertans will need political and economic support from the US if separation is to occur followed by statehood.

Canada’s constitution does not allow unilateral separation. Following the unsuccessful referenda on separation in Quebec, the federal government enacted the Clarity Act in 2000. The act stipulates that the national parliament’s House of Commons determines if the referendum on a province’s independence demonstrates “a clear expression of a will by a clear majority” of the provincial population.

As the saying goes: the Devil is in the details.

The outcome of the recent election has heightened long-running tensions in conservative regions. In Alberta, the Conservatives won 34 out of 37 seats, and similar dissatisfaction has been observed in neighboring Saskatchewan and British Columbia.

Let us not forget that prior to Donald Trump’s rhetoric about “Governor” Trudeau and the “51st state,” Canadians were looking to the Conservative Party to rescue an economy that Trudeau and the Liberals had run into the ground. Let’s see how long the “knee-jerk” reaction of the electorate remains before Canadians realize they overreacted and that Alberta has a legitimate point that happens to coincide with America’s national security interests.

~

Andrew Wolf, Jr. is director of The Fulcrum Institute, an organization of scholars dedicated to the classical liberal tradition. He has also been published stateside in American Spectator, The Thinking Conservative, and American Thinker, as well as abroad in International Policy Digest, Times of Israel, and The Daily Philosophy, among others.