It appears North Korea is itching for a fight, any fight. For some time, we've heard numerous reports on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) providing artillery ammunition and other assistance to Russia to support Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Now, we are learning that Pyongyang is preparing ground troops to join Russia in the war against its neighbor to the West.
The US Watches North Korea Find a Way to Train Its Troops in Real Time
There has been little the US has done or perhaps can do to stem the tide of the DPRK's aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific. The DPRK has built a formidable war machine marching in place. Consequently, North Korea's army's nearly one million soldiers have not been battle-tested. "Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have spiked since 2022, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un used Russia's war on Ukraine as a window to dial up his weapons testing activities and threats," according to the Associated Press. What better way to determine if your military force is up to the job than sending it to a ready-made conflict for some on-the-job training?
The stage was set for more extensive DPRK support to Russia in June when Russia's President Vladimir Putin traveled to Pyongyang to sign a mutual assistance agreement. "While Putin claimed the treaty was 'defensive in nature,' it will no doubt fuel Western concerns that the Kremlin is marshaling authoritarian states such as China, Iran, and North Korea to back its war in Ukraine with both rhetoric and materiel," Politico reported. But to put a finer point on what that assistance means, in September, when Kim and Putin held a meeting in Russia, Kim "'offered his full and unconditional support' for Russia's war in Ukraine," Politico explained.
The cozy relationship between Putin and Kim has proven mutually beneficial, with Russia offering weapons technology that North Korea needs to continue its sophisticated ballistic missile and satellite programs. For Moscow, the return on the technology investment in the DPRK is to replenish its rapidly depleted munitions stock. Russia has received massive amounts, possibly as many as a million, artillery rounds from the DPRK. Munitions have been the extent of Kim's assistance to the Kremlin's assault on Ukraine so far. However, Russia's battlefield losses, north of half a million soldiers, demand replacements. North Korea has the replacements.
Within the last month, Kim has decided to up the ante in the DPRK's involvement with Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. "In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said that in addition to providing large shipments of artillery shells and ballistic missiles for Russia, North Korea has been sending military engineers and soldiers to fight alongside Russian troops," The New York Times reported. The number of DPRK military fighters has been unknown. There is speculation that as many as 3,000 more are being readied for deployment to the Ukraine battlefield.
However, more of Kim's soldiers could be waiting to get into combat. In the current situation, whatever the details of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's plan for victory, the influx of a significant number of enemy North Korean soldiers would be a big problem. Jed Babbin, writing for the Washington Times, explained:
"North Korea has an army of about 1 million men. If even two or three divisions of North Korean troops were sent to Ukraine, it would be a huge escalation that could overwhelm Ukraine's forces. If it occurs, NATO would have to choose between sending in its own troops — which it should not do — or watching Ukraine fall. Both Mr. Biden's and Mr. Zelenskyy's plans would be voided by North Korean intervention."
The US Is in Denial
The addition of another country's military force allied with Russia in fighting the Ukrainians complicates what has been an incrementally growing collaboration between Kyiv, the US, and NATO. Looked at dispassionately, the reality is two sovereign nations are allied in waging war on a third sovereign country – Ukraine. The national security ties that have developed between Ukraine, the US, and NATO mean the West is confronting the Russia-DPRK axis. Throw in Iran's continuous flow of attack drones for Russian forces, China's provision of financial support, and the Biden-Harris administration's "as-long-as-it-takes" plan for assisting Kyiv in its struggle against the four countries allied against it, a positive outcome is difficult to ponder. The belief that the current plan will be successful is pure denial.
Zelensky and the Ukrainians cannot drastically alter the forces at work aligned against them while struggling to keep some semblance of parity on the battlefield. Whatever the solution, the Ukraine conflict is rapidly taking on a global dimension. That is not good for anyone.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
