In 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the party of the president has lost an average of 28 House seats. This time, however, Republicans hope to break the trend. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has identified 26 House Democrats it considers “vulnerable” in 2026. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a similar list of at-risk Democratic seats. Can the GOP defy history to widen its currently slim margin of majority in the House?
Midterm Challenges
Thirteen of the lawmakers on the NRCC’s list represent districts President Donald Trump won in the November election. Of the 26 endangered seats, five are in California, three of which unseated Republican incumbents in 2024. New York also has vulnerable Democrats – as does Nevada, a state Trump won in 2024 with just over 50% of the vote.
Thanks to the GOP’s increase in Latino voters, some Democrats in areas with higher Hispanic populations could be at risk as well. “Democratic Reps. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas as well as Nellie Pou of New Jersey are all a part of the GOP’s expanding offensive map for 2026,” explains the Daily Caller. Notably, those representatives won their seats in red districts.
But the House is only half of the equation. The Senate, though historically less likely to flip, has the opposite trajectory from 2024. Republicans will have to protect more seats than Democrats this time around: 20 out of the 33. But the left has some weak spots here, too, with “three vulnerable seats to defend,” as The Hill put it, “those of Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and now[Gary] Peters’ open seat in Michigan.” In 2024, Trump won Georgia and Michigan and missed New Hampshire by nearly three points. Republicans, on the other hand, appear to have only two seats that could be in peril: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and, assuming he goes ahead with his announced retirement, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
"[V[ulnerable House Democrats have been hard at work demonstrating they are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans,” said Richard Hudson, chairman of the NRCC, in a press release. “Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.” Still, House Republicans are playing both defense and offense
Meanwhile, Democrats can’t seem to establish a clear party leader. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both from New York, have clashed over their responses to the GOP-backed spending bill, sparking further conflict within their party.
Despite internal turmoil and one of the lowest favorability ratings since the early ’90s, some Democrats remain optimistic. “I fundamentally believe that our party is grounded in the values, principles, and aspirations of the working class,” said Ken Martin, the DNC’s new chair, in a memo last month. “[T]hat belief will guide my decisions and approach in the years ahead.” Beliefs are great and all, but what one believes is often highly imaginative and far from reality. All that matters in elections is what the public believes.
