Mamdani's Socialist Child Care Plan and the American Baby Bust

The socialist anthem has been sung, the Quran has been sworn on, and the war on individualism has been declared. Zohran Mamdani is now the mayor of New York City. What a start to the new year. While most of his policies are unlikely to be enacted – Mamdani has already backtracked on at least one proposal – even if they were implemented, they would not achieve their intended aims. One of these is taxpayer-funded universal child care, which the mayor thinks will encourage young people to have families.

Zohran Giving Child Care

During the mayoral campaign, Mamdani proposed providing free child care for all children from six weeks to age five. He also suggested expanding capacity and offering higher wages for child care workers, comparable to those of government schoolteachers.

“The cost of child care will no longer discourage young adults from starting a family because we will deliver universal childcare for the many by taxing the wealthiest few," Mamdani said in his inaugural address on January 1.

The democratic socialist and his team estimate this will cost $6 billion. Researchers at the Fiscal Policy Institute projected it would run closer to $6.7 billion. Since it is the government, you can expect bloated costs – so as high as $8 billion might even be more accurate. But no matter the price tag, it is unlikely to encourage households to have children and help reverse the declining birth rate across the United States.

Results Seen Around the World

First, let's put on a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey, eat some Canadian bacon, and sing Blame Canada from South Park. We're heading up north. In 2021, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced $30 billion in spending to establish government-regulated childcare spaces. Families would dole out just $10 per day to allow strangers to care for their children. To date, the program has been a disaster, driven by spiraling waitlists and families abandoning their pursuit of these magical $10-a-day centers. Instead, they are still spending thousands of dollars per month.

Of course, it is not only the Great White North. From Australia to Switzerland, universal child care has not been the cure to lowering costs.

But what about Mamdani's claim that this idea could encourage families to have children? The results show no improvement in fertility rates for countries that have adopted this program. Plus, don't democratic socialists want to reduce the global population?

In the 1990s, the province of Quebec instituted a low-cost, taxpayer-subsidized initiative. Three decades later, the province's birth rate has declined to a historic low of 1.33 children per woman, down from roughly 1.6 when the system was erected.

In Vermont, the state government established universal pre-kindergarten more than a decade ago. A March 2025 study determined "no meaningful increase" in birth rates among women aged 20 to 44. "While universal pre-k reduces childcare burdens, these findings suggest its limited influence on family size and reversing the U.S. birth rate decline," the paper stated.

Looking beyond North America, countries are struggling to stimulate birth rates, even with so-called pro-family policies.

Denmark's universal access to child supervision has not affected fertility. Norway expanded subsidized care for children, and the data indicates no increase in total fertility. While Spain's universal preschool did not increase the number of children, the government found a rise in maternal employment. In Germany, no fertility response to government-run daycare.

Nothing Seems to be Working

Western governments have learned the errors of their ways and have abandoned rhetoric claiming that there are too many people on this planet. Instead, they are reversing course and introducing a range of pro-natalist measures, from tax benefits to penalties.

The Associated Press reported on January 1 that China will start charging a 13% value-added tax on contraceptives. Hungary has offered interest-free loans and tax exemptions for moms with four or more children. Japan is subsidizing matchmaking services and covering childbirth costs. Canada, Italy, and Poland continue to make monthly cash payments.

Perhaps it will take time for these policies to filter through society, but so far, these investments have not generated returns.

Who’s to Blame?

Blame inflation? Fault climate alarmists? Guilt Baby Boomers for not providing financial support to their struggling adult children? Ryan McMaken of the Mises Institute had this to say:

"What human beings value can change substantially over time for reasons far more complex than 'the price of thing X went down, so I will therefore buy more of thing X.' If having children is 'thing X' in this equation, it is clear that there is much more to the matter than the cost of feeding and clothing and housing children."

Whatever the reason, it seems safe to say the trend won’t turn anytime soon, no matter how many socialist measures the government enacts. And for the foreseeable future, at least, the world will model Canada and Europe and import millions to keep things afloat and population levels stable.