Like a coffee at a gas station Tim Hortons, the career of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa is burnt. After nearly a decade at the helm of the Great White North, Trudeaumania 2.0 could be fading to black, with a resignation letter from the country’s top job inching closer to being signed. How did Canada's Liberal Party leader sit on the brink of a political meltdown? It was a morning that will forever be ensconced in modern Canadian history.
A Morning in Justin Trudeau Land
On the second-to-last day of the House of Commons sitting before the holiday break, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was set to deliver the long-awaited 260-page fall economic statement. In a move that sent shockwaves throughout Parliament Hill, Freeland resigned from the top economic post after she said that Trudeau asked her to take on "another position in Cabinet."
Freeland, 56, revealed that she has been at odds with the prime minister "about the best path forward." As Canada "faces a grave challenge" with the incoming US administration's pursuit of double-digit tariffs, the country needs to be more fiscally responsible, Freeland wrote.
"We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment," she said.
The "political gimmicks" Freeland was potentially referencing were the prime minister's latest measures: a pause in the national sales tax (GST/HST) and handing out $250 checks to most Canadians. This does not mean she is resigning from her seat. Instead, she plans to remain a Member of Parliament and will run for re-election next year.
The consensus in Ottawa is that Freeland threw Justin Trudeau under the political bus. While the prime minister did not speak to reporters, he addressed the tumultuous day at a Christmas party for top Liberal donors and a caucus meeting.
"It's obviously been an eventful day. It has not been an easy day, but I wanted to come here tonight and speak with you dedicated, devoted members of the Liberal Party, because you, not me or any other politician, are the beating heart of this movement," Trudeau said at the holiday shindig. "It is the absolute privilege of my life to serve as your prime minister."
Trudeau's opponents – and allies – were less sympathetic.
Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader of the Official Opposition, told reporters that "everything is out of control." Poilievre, who has repeatedly pushed for a snap election, says it would be best to have one before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, even if it means during the holiday season.
"I think right now, Canadians’ Christmas holidays are being interrupted by the NDP-Liberal hell they’re living under,” said Poilievre. “And I think the best Christmas present we could give Canadians is to let them choose a new common-sense Conservative government that will bring home Canada’s promise.”
New Democrat Party leader Jagmeet Singh, who has been propping up the minority Liberal government for several years, demanded the prime minister step down. “Instead of focusing on these issues, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are focused on themselves. They’re fighting themselves instead of fighting for Canadians. And for that reason, today, I’m calling on Justin Trudeau to resign,” Singh said. “He has to go.”
Even Trudeau’s fellow Grits asked for his resignation. Reports suggest that Trudeau has listened to their concerns and will reflect on his future in the coming days. "I can say we're not united. There's still a number of our members who think we need a change in leadership, and I'm one of them," Liberal Ontario MP Chad Collins said to reporters following the caucus powwow.
While the political circus was in full swing, the bombshell fiscal news was that the federal government registered a $61.9 billion deficit last fiscal year, nearly 50% higher than Freeland’s initial projection. Additionally, Ottawa proposed more than $20 billion in new spending, with a chunk of the outlays dedicated to border funding to appease the president-elect and subsidies for companies in the event of a trade war.
The Politics of Eh
So, should Trudeau resign, what happens? First, an interim leader would be named to take his place. In this case, a likely choice would be newly appointed Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc. The Tories would then present a confidence motion, something they have already done a few times. If Singh and the New Democrats join the Conservatives and perhaps the Bloc Quebecois, an election is called. Should the Grits survive, Canadians must wait until October 2025 to oust Trudeau’s Liberals.
Either way, the Liberal Party will be like the aforementioned gas station Tim Hortons coffee. The prime minister has been remarkably unpopular, even losing a by-election in the heart of ultra-left-leaning downtown Toronto to a Conservative. This is what happens when inflation ravages a nation, housing affordability collapses, and households, farmers, and businesses are slapped with a carbon tax. All the while, Trudeau is more outraged that the United States did not elect a female president for the second time than the record number of Canadians visiting food banks.
According to the latest polls, Poilievre and the Conservatives hold a 21-point leader, enough to secure a substantial majority. Put simply, they can enact the "Common Sense" agenda without much opposition. The question becomes: Who will serve as the Official Opposition? The Liberals and NDP are surprisingly neck-and-neck, showing how little faith the electorate has in Singh and the New Democrats.
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