If you look at recent polls, Judge Roy Moore doesn’t have a snowball's chance in hell of being elected to the U.S. Senate. But if there’s anything American voters should have ascertained this last year it is that polls can be wrong. They can, in fact, be very wrong.
One thing is for sure, the Democrats in Alabama are pulling out all the stops – and just about every woman they can get their hands on – to prevent Moore from winning Jeff Sessions’ former Senate seat. The chips may be down, but if you read the political tea leaves, Moore is far from out of this race. Here are just a few reasons why.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Polls
The Fox News poll released this week has Moore trailing behind his opponent Doug Jones by eight points. This was a small sampling of 823 Alabama registered voters with only 649 of them labeled as likely voters. As well, the poll shows 7% of those polled answered: “Don’t know.”
Gee, this sounds awfully familiar. Without a doubt, President Trump wildly under-polled in the 2016 election. In the final analysis, most of these “Don’t know” folks swung Republican as voters decided to play it close to the vest, pull that curtain closed and vote Trump. This is certainly a possible scenario for Moore.
More Reasons for Moore’s Election
One cannot ignore that this entire fiasco in Alabama started with The Washington Post. WaPo is not exactly The Birmingham News. The American electorate is increasingly suspect of left-leaning media outsiders telling them who they should or should not vote for – and with good reason. Many conservatives are fiercely independent-minded, and Alabamans certainly don’t hold any water for The Washington Post. Just look at their state motto: “Audemus jura nostra defendere” which is Latin for "We Dare Defend Our Rights.” This doesn’t sound like a group of people easily swayed.
In addition, there are a couple of matters that cannot be ignored in this race. Perhaps clumsily and somewhat awkwardly Judge Moore has – nevertheless -- consistently and repeatedly maintained his innocence. This, despite an onslaught of women alleging various and sundry types of sexual misconduct. Even though the Republican National Committee has backed off (yes, all those brave souls in The Swamp) the Alabama GOP is holding fast. Not only are they standing by their man, but they're also reaching out nationwide to garner support for Moore. Here’s just one e-mail pitch made on the Judge’s behalf this week to out-of-state Republicans:
“I'm under fire like never before.
Mitch McConnell and his attack dogs.
The Obama-Clinton Machine and their cohorts in the fake news media.
They're unloading all of their firepower on me as part of a last-ditch effort to defeat me and keep me out of Washington.
But I won't back down.”
This doesn’t sound like a guy who is ready to take his toys and go home.
But if all these reasons in and of themselves don’t convince you that Judge Moore just might pull this out, there’s one more.
Gloria Allred.
It’s a little convoluted, but the big-time high-profile attorney just may have to put up or shut up. At issue is a yearbook produced by her client Beverly Young Nelson. It is allegedly signed by Moore but carries his judicial assistant’s initials. This is odd since assistant Delbra Adams didn’t start working for Judge Moore until 1987 and the yearbook dates from 1977.
Uh oh. Despite repeated calls to release the yearbook to handwriting analysts, Allred has refused. As the saying goes, something is rotten – but it’s not in Denmark, it’s in Alabama.
Of course, all this logic could fall by the wayside and Judge Roy Moore could go down in defeat in Alabama. But it would mean Alabama voters would have to accept these uniquely timed allegations of sexual misconduct, reject the American standard of innocent until proven guilty and swallow whole a story from a big shot, grandstanding California lawyer that seems to have run into a little evidence snag.
Let’s put it this way, those on Judge Moore’s campaign staff just might want to hold off on finding a new job. Their guy may be down, but he’s certainly not out.
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