When one’s political opponent is tied up in both federal and state court facing dozens of felony charges that could amount to more than 100 years in prison, the notion that you could be on a losing streak with the electorate might seem entirely unrealistic. And yet, this is precisely where President Joe Biden now finds himself – on a downward trajectory facing defeat at the ballot box. How is it that the incumbent commander-in-chief is struggling to break away from Donald Trump? And why is his campaign failing to gain traction?
Biden Versus the Polls
Of the 62 major polls conducted since the beginning of 2024, President Biden has only topped the charts 13 times (he tied with Trump in six of them), meaning the public has indicated its preference for former President Trump in 43 surveys. According to Real Clear Politics, the 45th president is leading by an average of 1.4% nationally – a stature he failed to achieve when he won in 2016 and when he narrowly lost in 2020. But it gets more worrisome for Team Biden when we delve into the battleground numbers.
The November election will not be determined by what happens in the majority of states. As Liberty Nation calculated in a February report:
There are a number of states regarded as safe for each party – think California and New York for the Democrats and West Virginia and Wyoming for the Republicans. If these are calculated, President Joe Biden can expect to start the Nov. 5 presidential election with 191 [electoral college] votes safely in hand and another 35 either likely or leaning Democrat – giving a total of 226 votes, just 44 shy of a second term. The Republican contender – presently polled as Donald Trump – has a steeper hill to climb. The 19 states considered safe for Republicans add up to 121 votes, with likely or leaning locales adding a further 98, for a total of 219. That's 51 short of a majority.
Polling data for the seven major swing states indicate that Trump has an average 3.2% lead. In fact, in at least four out of the seven (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina), his lead is outside of the margin of error. If the election were held today, this would herald the return of Trump to the White House. How did it all go so wrong for Joe Biden?
Words Over Actions
There has been a major push from the White House to explain to the American people that they are – reflecting Ronald Reagan’s famous question – better off now than they were four years ago. The president’s X account even posed this question to its followers. It seems that the bulk of the electorate is answering in the negative.
Recent polling by Harvard/HarrisX reiterates the sweeping ratio delivered on social media. The survey offers a few key data points that are at odds with the White House message on the economy:
58% say the economy is on the wrong track (just 34% say it is on the right track).
56% say the economy is weak.
47% say their personal financial situation is getting worse (just 27% say it is getting better).
Inflation is the top issue affecting voters personally.
Democrats and their media allies have been touting economic improvements on last year, and while there are some bright lights on the horizon, Americans’ experience appears to be directly at odds with the message. But what of the “top issue facing the country”?
Immigration is the latest high-profile topic with which most Americas appear concerned, according to the Hill/HarrisX poll. Biden has just a 36% approval of his handling of the ongoing crisis.
Illegal immigration has dominated the headlines for the last year – with once-boastful sanctuary cities now back-pedalling on their promise of refuge and safe haven. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the man responsible for implementing and refining the administration’s policies on the border, was even impeached to almost no outrage from the Biden-friendly Fourth Estate. And yet, in the eyes of the electorate, the president has failed to act in a way that alleviates pressures or deals with fears.
Notably, in this polling, 55% now approve of the job Donald Trump did as president – and that figure includes 29% of Democrats and 48% of independents. Digging deeper, black voters approve at a rate of 40%, Asians at 44%, and Hispanics at a whopping 60%.
Competence Deficit
So, we see a scattershot approach to messaging, which could easily be confused with attempting an all things to all people approach. But what appears to be lacking is public trust that the Biden administration and DC fixtures are capable of delivering positive results with anything that approaches competence.
Team Biden took over the White House with a claim that the adults were back in charge. Such boasts come with certain responsibilities. And yet, despite the strongly worded guarantees of an end to Trump’s alleged chaos, disorder has been the hallmark of this administration. From the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal to a cumulative inflation burden of more than 18%, it seems the president has a reverse Midas touch.
Politicians can get away with being many things, but incompetence – or at least the appearance of incompetence - is the ultimate sin.
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