A recent study shows the US may not be ready to deter a near-peer nuclear threat. The nuclear posture is a measure of our readiness to confront an adversary willing to use atomic weapons, and the study shows America’s status is lacking. The Biden administration, it seems, has not been minding the store.
New Review of US Nuclear Posture Not Encouraging
In October last year, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States issued a report concluding that the US's nuclear posture was "not up to the task." On July 30, 2024, The Heritage Foundation, as part of its mission to provide the succeeding presidency with useful information, released "A Nuclear Posture Review for the Next Administration: Building the Nuclear Arsenal of the 21st Century." The study is a comprehensive evaluation of the growing nuclear threat, the dilemma of developing and sustaining – and paying for – a credible deterrent, and what it will take to field that deterrent. Simply put, this is supposed to benefit the next administration’s ability to stop Beijing and Moscow from using the threat of nuclear attack to coerce America and its allies into whatever China and Russia want.
What the latest review by Heritage found was that, as in the past, "America's current nuclear program of record is 'necessary but not sufficient to meet the future threat.'" More investment in the US strategic deterrent and an evaluation of the existing US nuclear program of record are needed. Heritage's assessment determined that the nuclear modernization path the US is on is designed to "deter strategic attack and great-power war for the next half-century," but will not accomplish what it is designed to do. The slow pace of modernization is the culprit. For example, "Modestly amended in 2018 to include the low-yield SLBM [submarine launched ballistic missile] and the SLCM-N [submarine launched cruise missile-nuclear], the 2010 modernization program is a multi-decade endeavor to produce a modernized arsenal," the Heritage document observed.
But the "multi-decade endeavor" is not a smooth-running machine. "[T]he current nuclear modernization program of record is suffering cost overruns and schedule delays in virtually every major aspect of the nuclear enterprise," the recent review warns. Being over cost and behind schedule are not the worst aspects of the US's faltering nuclear posture. For a nuclear weapon to go boom, it must have fissionable material. The review revealed that:
"The United States has not produced new plutonium pits (the fissile material central to a nuclear detonation) at scale since Rocky Flats ceased production in 1989, and current efforts to restart the capability are years behind schedule. The Los Alamos National Lab will begin to produce plutonium pits at a small scale in late 2024—14 years after the modernization program began—and the Savannah River site's ability to produce plutonium pits in any meaningful quantity is approximately a decade away."
While the US struggles to get a nuclear modernization program that is adequate to address global threats, the two looming adversaries are full speed ahead. More than three years ago, Liberty Nation News reported that the then-commander of the US Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, raised a red flag over Russia. "Meanwhile, as Richard explained, 'Russia is undergoing a very extensive nuclear modernization program, which is about 80% complete.' He added that the Kremlin says the modernization program is actually 88% complete." The US Department of Defense estimates for China's nuclear buildup project that the People's Liberation Army will have 1,000 nuclear warheads that are at higher readiness levels than the US by 2030 and will reach parity with the US at the current rate of production by 2035.
Heritage study Findings Ominous
Based only on these findings, one of the current review's conclusions is particularly alarming. The Heritage researchers point out:
"The current security environment holds extraordinary dangers for the United States. For the first time in its history, the United States is a second-tier nuclear power below Russia, with a third power—China—expanding its conventional and nuclear threats at a breathtaking pace. If the United States fails to defend its interests, which are under attack by Beijing and Moscow, the consequences could be enormous."
What should be more troubling for Congress and the American people is that the same deficiencies are exposed in each new nuclear posture review. Nothing of substance is being done to address the problems. There seems to be no sense of urgency. Over 14 years have elapsed since the nuclear modernization program was initiated. Now, in August of 2024, the Pentagon is “considering options to increase the number of nuclear weapons launchers and warheads at its disposal,” Breaking Defense reported. In what is shaping up to be a post-MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) world, there is no US-integrated and -structured plan with measurable milestones to achieve nuclear prominence again.
So, here the US sits, rapidly going from a second-tier to a third-tier nuclear power as America's imminent nuclear-peer threats are doing more than "considering options."
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
