A recent J.P. Morgan Report that undocumented immigrants may be ramping up US housing demand dovetails ironically with claims in “sanctuary states” that more illegal immigrants are necessary to construct more houses. This dragon-eating-its-tail spiral of higher living costs is particularly evident in rural Vermont, which faces one of the nation’s toughest housing crunches even as progressives push for a new law making it illegal for landlords to require social security numbers of tenants.
Vance Vindicated
JD Vance claimed during a February 2024 hearing that “If you think about what it means to have 20 [million] or 25 million undocumented, illegal immigrants in a country, in a situation where we’re not building enough housing … you have way more buyers for way fewer homes….” Vance was widely derided by media outlets for his commonsense observation. A Business Insider headline declared, “JD Vance Said Migrants Are to Blame for Pricey Homes, but He’s Wrong,” attributing rising costs to the sole metric of lack of supply. CBS News claimed the “skyrocketing housing costs stem chiefly from larger issues in the real estate market. The biggest factor: a longstanding lack of new construction…”
The JP Morgan Report weighed various factors, including rising interest rates that make existing homeowners hold onto their low-interest-rate mortgages, but found what Economics 101 (and Vance) logically suggest: Increasing demand coupled with limited supply equals increased prices. “It’s estimated that there are 11.2 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., and that number may be higher, it reads. “This could be ramping up housing demand more than figures suggest, resulting in a shortage of stock.
Illegal Government Protection of Illegals
Understandably, housing demand sparks more construction, creating jobs for illegals working … illegally. John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research at J.P. Morgan, observed that “approximately 30% of construction workers are immigrants…. Cutting immigration would mean cutting labor supply in the construction industry, which could end up exacerbating the lack of affordable housing.” The CATO Institute similarly states: “...immigrants … increase the overall housing supply thanks to their outsized ranks in the construction industry.”
This circular reasoning has become pronounced in sanctuary cities and states, straining tensions as illegal migrants receive benefits that “natives” lack. Recent revelations of massive USAID funding of hotel stays for migrants highlight this contrast.
Vermont has been particularly vocal in its support for resettlement of refugees and sanctuary for illegal migrants there. The state recently created a “Task Force” designed to resist Trump administration efforts to arrest violent illegal immigrants. The justification for protecting non-citizens at the expense of the economic interests and physical safety of native Vermonters is labor. As reported at Liberty Nation News, Vermont Treasurer Mike Pieciak justified the Task Force’s opposition to federal immigration laws:
“These measures could have a profound impact on our economy, particularly our agricultural sector and housing development, both of which rely heavily on immigrant labor to support their workforce. I’m honored to partner with local and national experts to help ensure Vermont employers and their workers know what to do should ICE come knocking.”
Progressive Housing Conundrum
Vermont’s aging population saddled with nosebleed property taxes, along with young Vermonters unable to afford a home, are knocking at the legislature’s deaf doors for relief that never comes. A 2023 study concluded that Vermonters struggled with the second-highest grocery costs in the nation – higher than Alaska and only outdone by Hawaii. According to a January 9, 2025, article in Consumer Affairs, “Vermont is the most expensive state for health care, while Hawaii is the most affordable.” A January 29, 2025, article (15 States in the US With the Highest Property Taxes, by Wealthgang) claims Vermont has the fifth-highest nominal property tax burden in the nation. However, three of the four higher taxing states listed (Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois) have much higher median incomes than Vermonters – the effective tax burden is much higher. The state suffers from profoundly regressive tax structures – implemented by progressives to “help the poor.”
Vermont’s housing crunch has undoubtedly been impacted by migration: at least 4,900 newcomers in the twelve months ended in mid-2021, per Census Bureau Reports, and about 2,000 international immigrants in 2024. The Green Mountain State’s population hovers at just over 600,000 residents, so this migratory flow impacts housing affordability: “This cost, and a shortage of units, drives people out of Vermont and prevents families and workers from moving here,” Governor Phil Scott said in his inaugural address.
Vermont claims it needs 30,000-40,000 new homes by 2030 to meet demand, yet its progressive legislature enacted government edicts to restrict development and conserve 30% of the state’s lands by 2030 – 50% by 2050. Labyrinthine regulations and permitting processes inflate building costs. The bureaucracy is impoverishing residents while funneling ever more immigrants – legal and illegal – into its economic vortex.
Governor Scott Chases His Tall Tale
Governor Scott has long joined progressives in this odd tail-chasing. Advocating for more refugees despite some of the lowest housing vacancy rates in the nation, Scott claims. “We need people here in Vermont, and we have the jobs for people here in Vermont, but we don’t have the housing they need to be here.” The increased housing demand, compounded by the influx of illegals in the name of labor needs, has driven home prices sky-high while driving many native Vermonters young and old to flee to more affordable states.
While most Americans support improved immigration law enforcement the tone-deaf progressive response is not to help Vermonters, but to support illegals. Immigrants recently demanded that landlords be prohibited from requiring social security numbers on housing applications. Refugees are housed in hotels or AirBnBs (at costs of as much as $300/night), while locals whose families have lived in the Green Mountains for generations are made homeless.
