High Drama in Florida — GOP Control of the House on the Line

It’s April Fools' Day, but the fact that Republicans’ tenuous control of the House of Representatives rests on the results of two special elections in Florida today is no joke. It’s nothing less than deadly serious for President Donald Trump and his ability to continue draining the Swamp and upending the DC status quo at warp speed.

There are a few moving parts that will determine whether the GOP will hold, enhance, or eventually lose their razor-thin majority in the lower chamber of Congress once today’s results are in. While Republicans hold a relatively comfortable majority in the Senate, 53-47, their control of the House is anything but secure. As of today, the GOP holds 218 seats compared to 213 for Democrats. Four seats are vacant, with both parties having lost a couple of members since the November elections. Two Republicans from Florida resigned, with their replacements to be determined today, and two Democratic members - one from Texas and one from Arizona - died in March.

The stakes of these special elections are high enough that Trump decided last week to rescind his nomination of the fourth-ranking House Republican, Elise Stefanik, for UN Ambassador to avoid yet another special election to replace her. Though Stefanik was re-elected to her seat in New York by 21 points last November, the two Republicans running to replace her were true wild cards. One was a Trump skeptic, and the other vowed to run as an independent if he lost the nomination fight, setting up the possibility that they could split the conservative vote and hand the seat over to a Democrat.

Will Two Florida Districts Stay Conservative?

The two seats up for grabs today are to replace Mike Waltz, who was elevated to National Security Advisor for the president, and Matt Gaetz, who resigned when Trump picked him to become US Attorney General, a nomination later withdrawn when it became clear that Gaetz did not have enough support for Senate confirmation. The race to fill Gaetz’s seat in Florida’s 1st congressional district, covering much of the state’s northwest panhandle, pits Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, against Democrat and gun control activist Gay Valimont. The district, which has been represented by the GOP for the last 30 years, is one of the most conservative in a state dominated by the right under the leadership of Gov. Ron DeSantis. In a note of irony, the seat was once held by notorious anti-Trump MSNBC personality Joe Scarborough when he called himself a conservative Republican. Gaetz was re-elected overwhelmingly to a fifth term in 2024, 66%-34%, but never took the oath of office. Of the two seats up for grabs, this one is considered the safest for the GOP.

On the other hand, the race in Florida’s 6th district is not expected to be a waltz (pun intended) for the GOP. Located on the state’s east coast from St. Augustine south to Daytona Beach, the district once represented by DeSantis has been held by Republicans for the last 35 years. Waltz won a fourth term in November by the same 32-point margin as Gaetz. But in a race that has drawn national attention, a recent poll of 403 likely voters by St. Pete Polls shows the contest to be within the margin of error, with Republican State Sen. Randy Fine holding a 48%-44% lead over Democrat Josh Weil, a schoolteacher from outside the district, and independent voters favoring the Democrat, 57%-34%. Lopsided campaign contributions may have much to do with the race appearing tighter than expected. Weil has raised more than $10 million, much of it from left-wing interests outside the state, while Fine reports a war chest of less than $1 million, a fact that has made Republicans nervous in recent days.

No Trump Card on the Florida Ballots

While Trump has unsurprisingly endorsed both of today’s GOP candidates, the biggest disadvantage likely facing the two seeking to hold the seats of their predecessors is that Trump is not on the ballot. Given the highest approval ratings of his four-plus years in office that he currently enjoys, the president atop the ballot would essentially turn these House races into a pure referendum on his presidency. But now the candidates will have to stand more on their own merits, which is not necessarily a problem but is likely a heavier lift.

Special elections generally hinge on turnout, which averages about half that of the previous general election in the same district, according to the Pew Research Center. Whichever party can most effectively motivate its base voters will gain the advantage. Low turnouts in these types of contests have sometimes, though infrequently, generated surprising results with the underdog overperforming, especially when the race has national implications, as is the case in Florida’s 6th CD. At the same time, though, as reported by Pew, “U.S. House seats rarely flip to the other party in special elections.”

If the Republicans win both races today, it will provide a 220-213 seat advantage and a bit more breathing room for Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who, up to now, has had the smallest possible margin of error, one vote, to pass legislation. If both races go the other way, it would still leave the Republicans with a majority, but it might well be only temporary if Democrats hold the seats of their two deceased members in special elections in heavily Democratic districts in Texas and Arizona. In the end, while the GOP would like to win both of today’s races, they must win at least one to assure continued control of the House and grant Trump the elbow room to carry on unimpeded in his stated pursuit of America’s next golden age.