Iran's newly elected president and a diplomatic delegation will visit Baghdad on Sept. 11, at the invitation of Iraq's prime minister. Ties between Iran and Iraq have been growing stronger over the past several years, particularly as the former's reach into the latter to sponsor proxy terrorist groups and militias has increased. In the Middle East, relationships ebb and flow, and internecine squabbles persist over decades. However, mutual interests trump lingering disputes.
Iranian Overtures
The Biden administration has had little impact on the behavior of the Tehran government. However, one thing is clear: Where Iran is involved, nothing happens in isolation. Its actions cause reactions elsewhere in the region. When President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his first state visit, sits down with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, there will be great geopolitical interest. The French news service AFP reported:
"The two countries will sign memoranda of understanding on cooperation and security, Sadegh [Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadegh] said, without elaborating … In March 2023, the two countries signed a security agreement covering their common border, months after Tehran struck Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq's north. They have since agreed to disarm Iranian Kurdish rebel groups and remove them from border areas."
The Kurds in northern parts of both countries are the common target of each nation's displeasure, with a history of conflict between the factions It's not surprising Pezeshkian and al-Sudani would take this opportunity to discuss the Kurds. Making the situation more problematic is that the United States has long helped and been helped by Kurdish fighters. When the Trump administration defeated ISIS, the Kurds were directly involved. They provided valuable intelligence as they do today as US military forces carry out operations against Iranian proxies in northeastern Syria and Iraq.
Tehran's presence and influence in Iraq are not necessarily insurmountable, yet strong Iran-backed forces are uniting with elements of Baghdad leadership to force the US military out of Iraqi territory. "Although [the country's] dominance in Iraq is waning, Tehran has adeptly broadened its proxy networks within the country to safeguard its strategic interests," the Middle East Council on Global Affairs explained in its report, "From Rivals to Allies: Iran's Evolving Role in Iraq's Geopolitics." From the US perspective, the network of Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militias and the persistent attacks on American military outposts and bases are extensions of the nation's so-called Axis of Resistance. Furthermore, "More than a dozen Iraqi political parties have ties to Iran, which funds and trains paramilitary groups aligned with these parties …These groups have used violence to crush opposition to Iranian influence and to try to expel the remaining US forces in Iraq," the Council on Foreign Relations explained. Complicating Baghdad's position on being too eager to evict US military forces is the fact that America provides hundreds of millions in aid to Iraq. In 2023, the US foreign assistance to Iraq amounted to $264 million, according to US State Department data.
There are many economic and cross-border issues for the two leaders to discuss since Iran is one of Iraq's major trading partners. However, it is difficult to imagine the agenda will not include Tehran's stated intentions to attack Israel in retaliation for the Israel Defense Forces’ assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which was particularly embarrassing for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps since Haniyeh was staying in the organization's safe visiting dignitary quarters. Iraqi leadership may not be enthusiastic about such an attack but find themselves literally in the middle as any ballistic missile or drone raid on Israel would penetrate Iraqi airspace to reach targets. Likewise, an inevitable Israel Defense Force counterattack would traverse Iraq to get to Iranian targets.
New Geopolitical Power Bloc in the Making?
If the Pezeshkian and al-Sudani face-to-face portends a reordering of a critical Middle East relationship, giving Iran a greater influence in the affairs of Iraq vis-à-vis its neighbors, the United States, and concerned Gulf States. Currently, albeit tenuous at times, Iraq serves as a buffer between the number one exporter of terrorism and the rest of the region, including Israel. That bulwark may be crumbling. The Iran-aligned militia organization the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), according to a February Brookings Institute report:
"is on its way to becoming Iraq's preeminent political and institutional power, with its economic power also expanding … The PMF, with backing and support from Iran, hopes to drive the United States out of Iraq as the war in the Gaza Strip unfolds. Since regional tensions heightened after October 7, Iran-backed militias have attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria at least 160 times …"
In the absence of a strong and credible Biden administration position against Iran, the Baghdad leadership may believe embracing the new Iranian president's outreach is the best self-preservation move. Pezeshkian may have chosen this time for his first foreign visit to inspect and protect his country's interests. In any case, an Iran-Iraq Axis of Resistance may already be a fait accompli. Until the United States takes what has been so far a fight against proxies directly to the culprit, America's influence will wane, and Iran's will ascend. That bodes ill for Israel and the Gulf region.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
