What a summer it has been: an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the incumbent ending his re-election bid, and Vice President Kamala Harris anointed to the Democrat throne. Indeed, there has been no shortage of storylines in the world of politics. And yet, despite the political theater that has demanded an extra-large bag of buttery popcorn and amazed everyone, from observers in the front row to voters in the peanut gallery, polling data suggest that it is – and always will be – the economy, stupid.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
A plethora of 2024 election polls insinuate that the Harris-Trump race is tight. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll gives the vice president a three-point advantage. A Rasmussen Reports survey shows the Republican nominee enjoying a five-point lead. The Real Clear Politics average highlights a contest too close to call. But the latest snapshot of the presidential fight illustrates that Trump maintains a sizable lead on the top issue of the current election cycle: the economy.
According to the recent CNBC All-America Economic Survey, the former president possesses a commanding lead among voters on vital economic subjects, though he holds just a two-point lead in a head-to-head matchup for the Oval Office. Americans, by a ratio of two-to-one, think they will be financially better off under Trump. This includes 79% of Republicans and 31% of independents. By comparison, 48% of Democrats and 10% of independents believe their wallets will be in a better position under a Harris presidency.
Among specific economic issues, inflation and the economy's health were the chief topics of concern leading up to the 2024 election. Trump maintains a 12-point lead on both matters.
The business news network's study revealed a notable finding that could prove to be an opportunity for both campaigns. Forty-two percent of Democrats say who wins will not affect their finances, while 54% of independents share this view. Additionally, 80% know a lot or some of Trump's economic policies, compared to just 58% for the vice president.
Put simply, whatever policies a possible Harris or Trump administration institutes will not make a difference to kitchen table economics, a considerable number of voters believe.
As Liberty Nation News has reported, the GOP nominee has proposed across-the-board 10% tariffs, no taxes on tips and Social Security benefits, a lower corporate tax rate, and an increase in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas. The Democratic Party's standard-bearer has yet to unveil her economic plans or a public policy platform. The insinuation among the punditry class is that the Kamalanomics doctrine could be a continuation of the Bidenomics agenda of the last few years.
Harris has alluded to some actions she could take on day one, including possible price controls. "It will be a day one priority to fight to bring down prices. I'll take on big corporations that engage in illegal price gouging. I'll take on corporate landlords that unfairly raise rents. I will take on Big Pharma and cap the costs of drugs," she said at a recent campaign rally.
Indeed, the current administration has already employed measures to grapple with these issues. Over the last few months, the Biden White House has announced rent controls, as well as a joint Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission task force to combat what officials deem unfair and illegal corporate pricing. Until an official Harris-Walz 2024 platform is revealed and the vice president sits for an in-depth interview, voters can only surmise that her presidential aspirations will emulate her 2020 campaign.
"There's no question I'm in favor of banning fracking." "We've got to increase the corporate tax rate." "Estate taxes are going to have to go up." "There will also be a carbon fee." "On day one, we're going to repeal that tax bill [Tax Cut and Jobs Act]." These were all her statements from the Democratic primaries several years ago.
Does Economic Policy Matter?
Let’s be honest: US presidents do not manage the economy, but they can implement policies that might allow the country to thrive and prosper – or crash and burn. For instance, real (inflation-adjusted) annual incomes rose more than $4,000 under Trump, while they fell by about $2,000 under the current administration. The deregulatory push by the former president helped families save $11,000, but the current regulation blitzkrieg has cost households $47,000. A gallon of gasoline was about a buck cheaper under the 45th president. Inflation-adjusted stock market returns were also higher under Trump than Biden: 55% to 16%.
Be it media talking heads or the Federal Reserve, the smartest men and women in the corridors of power are befuddled as to why the American people are sour about the economic landscape. The widely watched University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has been weakening for the past several months and is far below the Trump-era all-time high. In January 2025, the nation will discover which way the country will go. Until then, voters will comb the records – and their bank accounts – to determine what economic policies suited their finances better.
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