By Antonio Graceffo, Ph.D.
On July 24, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported detecting and intercepting Russian and Chinese aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Similarly, in May, NORAD tracked four Russian military aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ. Throughout 2023, several incidents involved Chinese warships, aircraft, and surveillance balloons in the region. The increasing frequency of Russian and Chinese military activity in and around Alaska and the Arctic underscores the region's critical importance for the defense of the US homeland, Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, and NATO.
The Most Strategic Place on Earth
The US Department of Defense's 2024 Arctic Strategy aims to counter Russia and China by ramping up defense capabilities in the Arctic. This strategy is driven by environmental changes, as melting Arctic ice increases human activity and opens new shipping options like the Northern Sea Route, reducing travel time between Europe and Asia. Control over these routes and resources is crucial for global trade and energy security.
“Alaska is the most strategic place on earth," declared Brig. Gen. Billy Mitchell to Congress in 1935. Its unique position near the center of the Northern Hemisphere places it strategically at the Bering Strait chokepoint and along the Great Circle Routes between North America and Asia. These routes shorten the distance between continents, making Anchorage a key hub for international shipping. Countries like China and Russia use these routes to their economic advantage. Decreased ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean has opened potential shipping along the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. The Northern Sea Route, which parallels Russia’s Arctic coastline, has seen increased shipping in recent years as a result.
The features that make the Great Circle Route ideal for shipping also make it the preferred path for nuclear and conventional missiles targeting North America, making Alaska crucial for the nation's ballistic missile defense system. Russia's Arctic-based capabilities provide a clear approach to the US, raising a special operations risk and potentially threatening America’s ability to project power to both Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
The Arctic holds immense importance due to its vast natural resources, including oil, gas, coal, rare-earth metals, minerals, and fisheries. The retreat of sea ice is making these resources more accessible to Arctic and near-Arctic nations like China. Russia, deriving 20% of its GDP from Arctic activities, aims to expand further by submitting claims to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). To strengthen its territorial claims, Russia has established or refurbished military bases in the Arctic. Given Russia's previous territorial grabs, some fear the Krimlin will claim to own and then snatch up land even if the commission denies the request.
China and Russia Want Control
China and Russia are investing in Arctic capabilities to boost their presence and influence while redefining rules to their advantage. A significant threat has emerged with Russia's deployment of long-range cruise missiles capable of targeting the US and Canada through northern approaches. In fall 2022, Russia bolstered its Pacific Fleet with its first SEVERODVINSK-class nuclear-capable submarine, challenging North America's western defenses, including the Aleutians. Last month, for the first time in over two years, Russia sent two Bear bombers through the G-I-U-K gap, a strategic choke point between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK, approaching US and Canadian air defense zones. Additionally, Russia has deployed GPS jamming systems, interfering with aircraft over the region.
The officially recognized Arctic countries include Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States – and Russia is the only one on the list that isn’t an American ally. China, declaring itself a "near-Arctic state," has renamed new trans-Arctic shipping routes as the Polar Silk Road, a third major transportation corridor for the Belt and Road Initiative. While conducting regional maritime activities under the guise of research, China is believed to include military operations. The CCP is heavily investing in polar icebreakers, having completed its third in December 2023, with more planned. In contrast, the United States has only two polar icebreakers, both of which have been in service since 1976 and belong to the Coast Guard.
China and Russia see significant benefits in developing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Russia's northern coast. This shorter shipping path between Europe and Asia reduces travel time compared to routes like the Suez Canal. Murmansk, an ice-free port in northwestern Russia, provides year-round access to the NSR, bypassing international straits like the Strait of Malacca. The NSR's strategic importance lies in its potential to increase control over global shipping routes, reduce transportation costs, and bolster economic and geopolitical influence for both nations.
In April last year, China and Russia signed a memorandum for extensive cooperation in Arctic security between their coast guards. The Chinese Coast Guard was invited to observe the "Arctic Patrol 2023" exercise. During this time, Murmansk Oblast Governor Andrei Chibis met with Chinese diplomats to discuss business, shipbuilding, and NSR developments. The "Arctic Cruise 2023" and "Northern Interaction 2023" exercises further highlight their growing military cooperation.
The U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 Arctic Strategy focuses on enhancing its military presence in Alaska. By strengthening its capabilities, forging alliances, and investing in infrastructure, the US aims to safeguard national security and maintain regional stability. With Sweden and Finland now NATO members, ally collaboration is even more crucial. Consequently, the US supported the Arctic Edge 2024 exercise in Alaska for cold-weather operations training. In July, the White House announced the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact) with Canada and Finland to produce polar icebreakers and enhance Arctic shipping capabilities.
Ramping Up America’s Presence in the Arctic
The decision to intensify defense priorities in the Arctic is necessary to counter strategic threats from China and Russia. However, this effort is complicated by the military's engagement in multiple global theaters, including the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and Europe, which demand significant resources and attention.
The Commission on the National Defense Strategy, a bipartisan panel, published a report stating that the US is closer to a major war than at any time since World War II and is less prepared for such a conflict than since the Cold War. The commission concluded that “the US military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat" and warned that "the consequences of an all-out war with a peer or near peer would be devastating." This assessment, based on a conflict with a single adversary, raises concerns about America’s readiness to fight multiple opponents in different theaters. The commission also emphasized the necessity for the US to maintain a global presence – militarily, diplomatically, and economically – to uphold stability and preserve influence worldwide, including the Global South, where China and Russia are extending their reach. This suggests that U.S. multi-theater preparedness and involvement in global conflicts are necessary to maintain hegemony and deterrence, thereby avoiding full-scale wars with near-peer adversaries.
Balancing global commitments while ensuring adequate Arctic resources is crucial for maintaining readiness and responding to evolving threats. The Commission recommends that the DOD and Congress enhance national security by prioritizing agility, interoperability, and survivability in military systems, investing in cyber, space, and software, and canceling outdated programs.
