Democrat Hopes for Senate Takeover Hit a Reality Roadblock

While the pollsters and betting markets have the Democratic Party on course to take back the US House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, control of the Senate has become a whispered aspiration. Party leaders and pundits are – albeit cautiously – suggesting that flipping the upper chamber is within the realm of possibility. But like Icarus, who flew too close to the sun, there’s a lot of hubris at play. And with the “must-win” contests sporting candidates who are pulling whole baggage trains behind them, perhaps it’s time to reflect on the advice of the mythological master craftsman Daedalus.

Advice From the Past

The story goes that Daedalus and his son, Icarus, were imprisoned by King Minos in a famous labyrinth. To escape, the wily inventor made wings from feathers, threads, and beeswax. He warned his son to neither fly too close to the sun nor to soar too low, lest the sea foam sink him. Of course, Icarus ignored his father’s advice and ended up tumbling to his death when the heat of the sun melted the wax.

This is not, naturally, a tale on how to achieve a flight safety certificate, but rather a cautionary fable about the dangers of hubris and the necessity of moderation. It’s a lesson that some Senate hopefuls would be wise to take to heart.

The Senate Math

Currently, the balance of power is 53 seats for the GOP and 47 for Democrats. Although this cycle favors the left (Republicans defending 22 against just 13 for the Dems), only a handful have any real possibility of flipping. Because of the VP tie-breaker vote, the GOP would have to lose four races, without picking off any on the Democratic side, for the upper chamber to slip from their grasp. Just how realistic is that?

Three of the top targets include Maine, Ohio, and Texas – yes, Texas. In each of these states, the Democrat hopefuls may be exciting the hardcore base, but getting them over the finish line would require a lot of luck and a heap of willful blindness.

Maine or Bust

Graham Platner has an average polling lead of more than seven points over incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins, making this a significant race for Democrats and one of the most likely seats to flip. Democratic leadership had strongly backed Governor Janet Mills for the contest, but after a string of poor polling results, she withdrew from consideration. That leaves Mr. Platner.

It appears that this race will be dominated by Platner controversies. Whether it’s his Nazi-linked chest tattoo, his lewd comments about porta-potties, or his mockery of a Purple Heart recipient who was shot four times (Platner posted that "Poor marksmanship on the Taliban's part is the only reason this mouthbreather made it home"), the Senate hopeful will not only have to battle against GOP attack ads, but also his own party.

Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) said, "I find that tattoo and his commentary about it to be personally disqualifying … I hope Maine voters agree with me. I think it would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to think that Graham Platner's brand of the Democratic Party is what wins us durable majorities throughout this country."

And even more damning, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, responding to questions of antisemitism in his party, noted, "I mean, the guy that's going to win the primary in Maine … has a Nazi tattoo on his chest, and that's no problem for a lot of voters … I don't know why. That's crazy."

Each unearthed comment and anti-endorsement is likely music to the ears of Senator Collins.

An Ohio Rerun

Former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio is hoping to win back a seat he lost in 2024. While do-overs are not entirely uncommon in politics, the fact that he was rejected by voters just two years ago is not a great look. He is currently trailing incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted by almost three points.

Husted was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, so the Republican senator has yet to run this type of campaign, which might give Democrats a wave of confidence. Mr. Brown, however, comes with his own problems.

There is a definite shift in the party of the left, from old to young, and from blue-dog politics to a more progressive agenda. Just how does Sherrod Brown fit into this new dynamic?

Amanda Litman, who runs a group that encourages and trains first-time candidates, spoke with The Atlantic regarding Brown’s return to the ticket:

“‘In a year like this, if Sherrod Brown is really the best and only person that can make Ohio competitive, that’s who we should run,’ Litman told me. But, she quickly added, ‘it is a damning indictment’ of the Democratic Party in states such as Ohio that a just-defeated septuagenarian is its most viable choice.”

It seems a party-wide hubris that Democrats can resuscitate former glory when the electorate appears to have moved on.

And Texas – Yes, Texas

Newcomer James Talarico is just edging the polling lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by roughly one and a half points. The last time the Lone Star State had a Democrat senator was more than three decades ago. But, as often happens, a fresh face can excite a party.

Talarico has made his Christian faith a main plank of his campaign, which in Texas seems like a smart move. The party leadership seems to believe this deeply religious progressive is their best shot since Beto O’Rourke. But whereas O’Rourke’s bid was derailed by an ill-timed “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15,” Mr. Talarico seems to be digging a political grave of a different sort. Let us count the ways.

During a legislative session, he opined that “There are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.” More recently, when asked what he loves most beyond his friends and family, he replied, “trans children,” referring to a group that had recently rallied at the state capitol. He is pro-abortion on the basis that “Jesus never talks about abortion.” Such comments seem unlikely to bring Texans to the table.

Perhaps more damning for a state so famous for BBQ are his comments about meat-eating being a critical issue for climate change and about having run a “meat-free campaign” back in 2022.

Let’s be clear, Ken Paxton, the GOP candidate, is not without issues. And while Talarico’s singled-out comments in no way fully represent his full range of views, they will be used against him as the contest heats up.

Hope and Hubris Might Not Make the Grade

President Donald Trump is suffering from disastrously poor approval numbers as the war in Iran drags on, and pump prices remain elevated. Democrats have a unique opportunity to seize the lever of power. But to think they can run a series of incredibly flawed candidates in a bevy of must-win races and be successful is the hallmark of hubris.

The next presidential election is more than two years away, and even if these candidates win and the GOP loses its grip on the Senate, Trump can veto any legislation he disagrees with. Democrats might just win the upper chamber, but they’ll be stuck with senators whom even their leftist colleagues find beyond the pale. The party leadership might have its own sighs of relief if they fall short this November.