US Secretary of State Antony Blinken just completed a whirlwind trip to Israel, Egypt, and Qatar. As the Israel-Hamas war ceasefire negotiations ebb and flow with little progress being made, President Joe Biden’s administration is more desperate to get some result it can claim as a victory after three and a half years of foreign policy failure. Blinken's problem is that he pressures the wrong audience -- Israeli officials – when he negotiates.
Ninth Trip to Israel for Blinken
Blinken took his ninth trip to the Israeli capital since Hamas’ brutal attack on southern Israel in October. After 11 months of fighting, Blinken went to Israel, Egypt, and Qatar to facilitate a lasting ceasefire and hostage-return agreement. The New York Times report on the US initiative explained the Foggy Bottom leader's task this way:
"Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in Israel on Sunday [Aug. 18] to try to clinch a deal that could end the war in Gaza, even as the Middle East remained on edge amid the looming threat of wider regional conflict. The visit, part of an intensive diplomatic campaign led by the Biden administration, comes days after Israel's negotiating team held talks in Qatar with senior American officials, as well as Qatari and Egyptian representatives who are mediating between Israel and Hamas."
When Blinken landed in Tel Aviv, Israeli President Isaac Herzog greeted him, and each made remarks. Herzog opened with a reminder that Israel is not necessarily in the mood to be conciliatory. "In the last 24 hours, we have witnessed ongoing terror attacks by Palestinian terrorists. We have suffered the loss of Gideon Perry, a 38-year-old father of three, husband, a lover of music, who went to work in a plant and one of his pals decided to murder him simply because he's a Jew and an Israeli – a very great tragedy," Herzog observed. He went on to give an account of a possible suicide bomber in Tel Aviv and two soldiers being attacked on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Tel Aviv Discussions Difficult and Contentious
Herzog also gave Blinken some idea of what his follow-on discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would entail. "At the end, at the bottom line of it, people have to understand it starts with the refusal of Hamas to move forward," Herzog explained. During his opportunity to speak, Blinken revealed the urgency of his visit, counseling:
"And this is a decisive moment – probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire, and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security. But the focus of my visit is intensely on getting the hostages back, getting the ceasefire done. It is time for everyone to get to yes and to not look for any excuses to say no."
After what was reported to be a three-hour meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Blinken was able to claim success. In a press conference in Egypt, following his visit to Israel, the US chief diplomat boasted to the assembled journalists: “Now, as I think everyone remembers, President Biden put out a detailed plan for a ceasefire and release of hostages in May. The entire world endorsed it. The UN Security Council endorsed it … Israel has now accepted that proposal – I heard that directly from Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday.” Then Blinken finished the sentence with the real stumbling block, “… and we hope and expect that Hamas will do the same.” That’s the old “hope is a strategy” scheme that seldom works.
However intensely the Biden-Harris foreign policy team wants to be successful, the obstacle in the ceasefire negotiations has consistently been Hamas. As in the past, the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist organization has rejected ceasefire proposals that include Israeli forces remaining in Gaza. According to the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) Iran Update, August 20, 2024, Israel is adamant about retaining control over access to southern Gaza across the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land between Gaza and Egypt. “Controlling the Philadelphi Corridor will prevent Hamas and other Palestinian militias from rebuilding their capabilities quickly by interdicting smuggling into the Gaza Strip,” ISW analysts argued. There is no fuzz on where the Israeli government stands on this point. On Aug. 20, Netanyahu told the Israeli hostages’ families “that ‘under no circumstances’ will Israeli forces leave the Philadelphi Corridor,” ISW reported.
Hamas has continued to reject any proposal that leaves Israeli forces in Gaza, holding to the belief the terrorist organization will have some participation in governing Gaza when the conflict ends. As Liberty Nation News reported, "The post-fighting demands of Hamas reveal the terrorist organization's total misunderstanding of its plight … If anyone has been listening to Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, they would know that Israel has no intention of leaving any remnant of Hamas to govern anything."
Israel has no intention of accepting a situation in which it faces the horrors of another Hamas terrorist attack. Consequently, any progress that can be made in a ceasefire and hostage-Palestinian prisoner exchange requires a concession by Hamas. Blinken may have failed in his last, best opportunity to get the hostages home, as hope is flickering.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
