New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears to be hitting the unofficial campaign trail to stake an early claim on the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination. While her denials lack the stridency of an outright dismissal, her activities of late show every indication that she sees herself as a real contender. What does AOC bring to the political table, and will her mass of liabilities sink the nascent campaign before it even begins?
AOC and the Well-Trodden Path
Contenders make a number of political pilgrimages on their path to declaring a candidacy; notably, very different ones for each party. In terms of getting the Democratic Party nomination, the first step is often a national tour, with a handful of power-base precincts on the schedule.
In Georgia, the Brooklyn congresswoman gave a stump speech at the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church alongside the state’s senior pastor Sen. Raphael Warnock. It’s a coveted honor to speak there, and one that was not offered to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg when he trod a similar path two months ago.
As well, AOC has this month spoken in Montgomery, AL, on voting rights, visited the Morehouse School of Medicine, and had a well-publicized confab with Martin Luther King Jr.’s daughter in Atlanta, also on the subject of voting rights. AOC is blitzing the high notes in the hopes of getting the southern black vote sewn up. Many will remember that Joe Biden’s presidential campaign was dead in the water until South Carolina.
What the Polls Say
Getting the nomination is even more of a numbers game than winning the presidency. After all, in a head-to-head contest, you are not in danger of being politically destroyed by folks who you may later rely on to cast a ballot in your favor. An ugly primary can do far more damage than a straight presidential campaign attack.
AOC is hardly blazing a trail when it comes to polling numbers. Aside from a single outlier Atlas Intel poll giving her a whopping 26%, she has been averaging roughly 11%. Ahead of her are two big beasts, former Vice President Kamala Harris (26% average) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (17.5%), and at 12% Pete Buttigieg. We’re a long way off from the start of the Democratic presidential primary, and any of the three currently ahead of her might not choose to run. But 11% is a good starting point, especially if she can get early black vote support and block out her potential competitors.
Can She Win?
As a self-avowed Democratic Socialist, AOC is faced with a pickle. That she not only has to prove to voters that she can win and handle the presidency but also that Democratic Socialist policy is a winning formula for the country.
While New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is enjoying a popularity boom, his policies – despite his proclamations – have not necessarily been the boon the Big Apple had hoped for. Recently, he announced that he had balanced the budget and had closed a $12 billion shortfall. And while those who support him and his party were quick to applaud, a little digging by Liberty Nation News’ Andrew Moran revealed that Albany, through the largesse of Gov. Kathy Hochul, was offering almost $8 billion in assistance with a further $4 billion in “gap-closing support.” That hardly screams “balanced books.”
But beyond the efficacy of AOC’s political views is a whole baggage train of issues that could derail her campaign. Without being disparaging – and without speaking to the veracity of the accusation – a large chunk of America views AOC as just plain stupid. At a recent Munich Security Conference, the congresswoman made a string of embarrassing gaffes that fueled that particular fire.
From declaring that Venezuela was south of the equator to delivering word salads on the US-Taiwan position that would make Kamala Harris proud, she failed to cover herself in glory on her international stage debut. And who can forget AOC’s declaration that the reason the unemployment rate under President Donald Trump is so low is because everyone had “two jobs.”
It seems that she is her own worst enemy. And voters could be wary that, rather than getting a fresh, vibrant young voice leading the nation, they might get the ideological lovechild of Joe Biden’s gaffe machine and Kamala Harris’ word salad spinner.
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