Will Operation Economic Outcast Bring Iran to Its Knees?

A war that began with a flourish but has since descended into a drawn-out game of cat and mouse has now entered a new, and hopefully final, stage. With voters experiencing spikes in the cost of energy and food, heavily impacted by a conflict thousands of miles away, and midterm elections approaching, President Donald Trump is hoping that Operation Economic Outcast (OEO), announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Aug. 24, will tighten the US vise grip on the regime in Iran. The goal is to force it to the breaking point by severing its every financial link to the outside world.

OEO will effectively amputate five vital lifelines for the Iranian economy: digital assets, technology, aviation, gold, and shipping. Indeed, this initiative is an outright economic bum rush on the terrorist leaders in Tehran and all governments and organizations affiliated with them. As Bessent announced, there will be no more gray spaces, no more safe haven, for those who continue to do business with the Islamist regime. It is reminiscent of President George W. Bush in the aftermath of 9/11, when he warned countries that provided aid and comfort to the Al-Qaeda terrorists that if you are not with us in the fight, you are with them and will be treated accordingly.

At the same time, there have been regimes so thoroughly corrupt, tyrannical, and unconcerned with the suffering of their people that they will never step down except at gunpoint. Most recently, after multiple threats by Trump, Nicolás Maduro was seized in Venezuela after bankrupting his once-prosperous country and refusing to end the prolific drug trade he commanded. The functionaries, mullahs, and Revolutionary Guard in Iran who ordered the murder of some 50,000 of their own citizens are every bit as evil and intransigent as Maduro, so we can hardly be guaranteed that even the country’s crippling isolation from the rest of the world will convince the regime to give up the fight.    

For Iran, Reality Bites

This declaration of economic war by Bessent underpins the broad underlying state of the conflict. You may not want to hear what follows if you, like so many others, are suffering through the high prices at the gas pump and the supermarket inflated by the war in Iran. You may not thoroughly understand the rationale of President Trump for a conflict that increasingly appears to the naked eye as a forever war, the kind he promised never to enter. You may have been confused by the suddenness of the initial attack, necessitated by the need for secrecy, that decapitated the Islamist leadership. But a closer look, beyond the leftist and big media spin about a quagmire or even defeat, reveals a very different and brighter reality.

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Trump has declared on multiple occasions in recent weeks that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway and hub of dispute for months. The usual naysayers have been doing what they always do, dismissing a claim by Trump, as they say, without evidence. But now the administration says it has been helping tankers move up to ten million barrels a day through the strait, while the blockade on Iranian exports and imports has been severely tightened.

In an excellent commentary on 1945.com, author James Carafano wrote, “After a steady stream of handwringing, repetitive pearl-clutching, and endless Doubting Thomas tantrums over the course of the Iran War, even from the U.S. President’s own supporters, a sudden spurt of recent news has many feeling — well, maybe Trump got this right after all.” What news, you ask?  

Well, as Carafano noted, the head of the Iranian Central Bank admitted recently that oil exports, more than 50% of the nation’s total exports, have reached “zero.” The conflict has hardened America’s growing dominance in both military and economic spheres.  Only a few weeks ago, the Iranians were threatening to widen the war, leaving “no political border safe.” They are no longer making such threats due to their growing incapacity to carry them out. The regime hoped to trigger economic catastrophe across the globe, but the damage has been far less than the doomsday crowd predicted.

On the Matter of Sacrifice

For the millions complaining about paying more to fill up their gas tank, here is a lesson we all should have accepted long ago. There is always a cost to war. Ask those who fought in or lived through World War I or II, or Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Some form of sacrifice is always required from everyday Americans. During World War II, men willingly went off to combat, and women rearranged their lives to support the war effort. Rations were widely accepted. General Motors and Ford converted their entire operations to ramp up production of aircraft engines, bombers, and tanks. Comparing those sacrifices and so many more over the course of American history to enduring a temporary spike in prices at the gas pump for the sake of vanquishing an evil regime calling for “death to America” for decades is obviously farcical.

Nevertheless, Trump will never be faulted for failing to give peace a chance. Operation Economic Outcast represents the culmination of months-long efforts to convince Iranian leadership to stand down. The onset of OEO means Trump is taking the middle option between more talks and more war. Thus, the only remaining options going forward are destruction of the Iranian power grid and other critical infrastructure, a ground war, or a nuclear strike, none of which appears to be a live option for the administration. But Trump is counting on the regime to ultimately do the right thing and avoid an inevitable and thorough economic collapse before the people take to the streets again and demand regime change. 

The Islamist regime in Iran has been defanged, its military severely diminished, its navy and air force liquidated, its nuclear ambitions up in smoke, its economy on life support. The goal of this war has been clear from the outset: to remove the threat of a heavily armed fanatical regime with advanced nuclear ambitions sowing chaos, violence, and murder across the world and openly proclaiming its intention to destroy America and Israel along with it. That goal has been achieved, and now the endgame, bleeding them dry, begins.