Former President Donald Trump appears – at least on the surface – to be making a concerted effort to win the state of New York this November. Considering that the last Republican to seal the deal was Ronald Reagan back in 1984, such overtures may seem like a pipedream wrapped in a thick layer of hubris. But Trump has pulled off political longshots before, and while a victory in the Empire State appears out of reach, the proverbial stars may be aligning, causing some Democratic jitters.
Live at Madison Square Garden
The 45th president will entertain his fans at the world-famous Madison Square Garden on October 27. He announced to supporters this week: “We just rented Madison Square Garden. We’re gonna make a play for New York – hasn’t been done in a long time.” But is this just electoral bravado? After all, he garnered just 10% of Manhattan’s vote share in 2016 and gained a mere 2% by 2020.
Trump has, however, spent a huge amount of time in the area due to the notorious hush-money case. Notably, his poll numbers improved after his conviction. Surveys suggested that many voters saw his prosecution as politically motivated. To capture the state would be a definite thumb in the eye of his adversaries.
And let’s not forget that the electorate in New York State hardly ever gets the full campaign circus from GOP contenders. The energy and atmosphere, even just acknowledging they exist, could ultimately prove persuasive to the all-important independent voters.
But what do the numbers say?
A New York State of Mind
Currently, according to the sparse polling, Kamala Harris leads Trump by roughly 13 points. An enormous gap, you may say. And you’d be correct. But let’s look at this in context.
Since 1992, the Democratic challenger for president has won New York by a minimum of 23 points. The one exception was George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004 when he lost the Empire State by only 18%. This is solid blue turf that, in fact, is a tougher crowd for the GOP than even California. That Trump now stands within 13% and is ready to start campaigning in the deep blue environs should – at the very least – be cause for concern. As Liberty Nation News’ Tim Donner astutely notes, “a shrinkage in support in blue states is likely to reflect skepticism in the seven states that matter.”
And then there is the 2020 New York Times/Siena poll that had Trump up by a whopping 14 points in Florida, the red mirror image of New York. He ultimately won by only three points; it’s not too far a reach to assume that something similar is happening further north, especially since recent congressional elections have sent a strong message to the more progressive politicos.
Representative Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) suffered a stunning ten-point primary defeat in June this year. His progressive brand of politics, exemplified by his association with “the Squad,” turned out to be a step too far left for voters in Westchester County (although not in the much smaller Bronx that completes the 16th District). The root cause of his defeat was a concerted effort by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which took issue with his stance over the ongoing conflict in Israel. It was enough to overturn Bowman’s huge cash advantage and hand the primary crown to a more moderate George Latimer.
Joe Biden won New York state in 2020 by roughly two million votes. Of interest is that he won New York City with a total of 2.3 million votes. If Donald Trump wants to decrease Kamala’s margin of victory, the five boroughs are the place to do it.
And then there is New York City Mayor Eric Adams, currently embroiled in a campaign finance investigation; a number of his top aides have resigned or been arrested. Add into the mix the collapse of New York’s finances under the weight of housing illegal migrants, and it seems there are more reasons than ever for the Donald to believe he can make inroads.
Time, Treasure, and Mandate
There may, in fact, be one solid reason for Donald Trump to make a bid for New York: It backfoots Kamala Harris. Should his overtures continue to erode the reliable Democratic base in a death-by-a-thousand-cuts manner, Team Harris will be forced to expend their efforts in a location that should have been locked up by its in-built voting demographics.
If Trump narrows the gap on Election Day with the New York electorate, win or lose, it would be a devastating indictment of Kamala Harris and her mandate to enact the radical changes she has espoused on the campaign trail. After all, if a Democratic contender can only squeak by in the Empire State, it hardly makes for a ringing endorsement.
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