The Republicans Betting Against Trump’s Coattails

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, several GOP lawmakers on the campaign trail are starting to distance themselves from President Donald Trump. Rep. Byron Donalds, a Florida Republican in a competitive gubernatorial race, recently removed eight mentions of Trump’s name from his campaign site and deleted a photo of him with the president. He also cut a section titled “Enact the Trump Agenda” and deleted a banner noting that he was “TRUMP-ENDORSED.” Other Republicans are taking a different tack, criticizing some of the president’s policies and demanding an end to the war in Iran. The list of detractors seems to get longer each day. Are these Republicans genuinely breaking from the president, though, or just using a short-term strategy to appeal to the growing number of voters who dislike him? Either way, how much of a difference could it actually make?

Turning Against Trump

Other Republicans have also scrubbed references to Trump from their campaign websites, including Rep. Young Kim, who’s running for re-election in California. Even some in Kentucky are stepping back in a state Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024. Representative Andy Barr and former State Senator Ralph Alvarado edited their campaign websites, cutting Trump references and deleting photos with him. Barr also changed the phrase “America First” to “Kentucky First.”

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Perhaps the most noticeable separation comes from several Republicans speaking out against the war in Iran. Rep. Ashley Hinson, who’s in a tight race against Democrat Josh Turek for Iowa’s open Senate seat, recently wrote on X: “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.” Former Rep. Mike Rogers, locked in a competitive race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s pivotal Senate race, released an advertisement in which he stands in a grocery store, talks about costs, and says the “war with Iran needs to end and end quickly.” On Tuesday, Rep. John James, the GOP gubernatorial candidate in the Wolverine State, expressed similar sentiments, saying the war needs to end “quickly.” Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican running for Wisconsin governor against David Crowley, told reporters that “we should be exiting Iran; it’s time to move on.”

Meanwhile, back in Washington, some representatives on the ballot are showing defiance with their votes. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, both in competitive races, voted last week to limit Trump’s war powers. “With the negotiating window closed,” Nunn wrote on X, “sustained combat operations now require congressional authorization.”

Some Republicans are even rebuking the president’s policies. GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd, running to keep his seat in Colorado’s 3rd District, met with a group of voters and expressed his opposition to “Trump’s sweeping tariffs against Canada and a Republican push to sell public lands,” explained Colorado Public Radio. In Florida, GOP Representative María Elvira Salazar recently ran a commercial in which she stood in front of the White House and criticized Trump’s immigration crackdown, saying some “enforcement efforts have gone too far.”

None of this means these Republicans are breaking entirely from the president and want nothing to do with him. We’ve seen this move before.

The Nick of Time

Midterms are usually a referendum on the sitting president, so it only makes sense that some Republicans are trying to put the president at arm’s length. Several Democrats distanced themselves from former President Joe Biden during the 2022 midterm season, too, including Sen. Mark Kelly, who called the southern border “a mess” during his only debate against Republican Blake Masters. Many did the same thing in 2024, too, after the former president’s disastrous presidential debate against Trump.

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But today’s situation almost seems more calculated, and maybe it is. In July, Trump’s team supposedly gave the green light for Republicans to distance themselves from the president while campaigning, according to a report by MS NOW. A GOP strategist in Michigan, who is “familiar with the communications between the party’s national apparatus and the state’s key campaigns,” told the outlet that there’s “more autonomy” in Trump 2.0 and that the president is “still doing the work for the incumbents, but giving them space without lashing out.”

Perhaps the distance could move the needle enough to benefit Republicans in deadlocked races. After all, the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 45% of registered voters, and a majority of independents, view their vote as being against Trump, so putting the president at arm’s length seems like a sensible strategy. Then again, 57% of independent voters plan to vote Democratic and just 34% Republican in the midterms, according to the latest poll by The New York Times/Siena University.

In other words, deleting Trump’s name from a website and speaking critically about his policies might appeal to the current electorate. The hard part for these Republicans is explaining to swing voters why their change of heart came in the nick of time.