The Gap That Could Cost Republicans the Midterms

President Donald Trump is ramping up his efforts to help Republicans win in November and wants voters to pretend he is on the ballot – a move the GOP hopes will drive turnout. This appears to be their big plan for the midterms: more Trump. But this strategy seems to misunderstand the reality on the ground. Numerous people struggling with rising costs blame the president and see a huge gap between his priorities and their top concerns. This is part of a growing problem for Republicans: Many Americans, including some Republicans, see a disconnect between what the president promised Americans when entering the White House and what he has actually done, leading one to wonder whether more Trump will be a boon or a bust to the GOP this fall.

The Priorities Gap

The reality is that Trump polls worst on the problems voters are most concerned about. It’s not a new trend, either; in February, a survey from Wave Polling and Research found 69% of US adults believe the Trump administration was “focusing too much on deportations and not focusing enough on fixing the economy, inflation, and the rising cost of living.”

Pick any poll this year, and the story will likely be similar. A CNN survey in July found that only 27% of Americans think Trump’s priorities are in the right place, while 73% said he hasn’t focused enough on what matters most to them. In August, Strength In Numbers found that “the more important voters say an issue is right now, the more voters dislike how the president is handling it.” Meanwhile, “the issues Trump and Republicans are strongest on, border security and crime, are rated as the most important problem by the fewest voters.”

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A recent survey by Navigator Research showed voters’ top concerns are the cost of living, inflation, the economy, and health care. The three issues they’re least worried about are election integrity, disease prevention, and transgender issues. Yet they see Trump’s main priorities as immigration, foreign conflicts, and election integrity. For comparison, participants viewed Democrats’ primary concerns as health care, transgender issues, and the cost of living, followed by abortion, climate change, and the economy. Perhaps more significantly, they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle most issues.

On top of all this, Navigator Research also found 20% of 2024 Trump supporters now regret their vote, citing the war in Iran and soaring prices as their leading reasons, with health-care cuts not far behind. More than a third of those who regret voting for Trump said they changed their opinion of him because he was “focusing on the wrong priorities like the White House ballroom.”

With all this in mind, more Trump might not be the surefire plan it once was. Perhaps that’s why the midterm convention was mostly centered on energizing the base, especially low-propensity Republican voters. After all, it worked before; why not again?

A Tale of Two Trumps

After analyzing 11,000 interviews, pollster G. Elliott Morris found that the lower-propensity voters Republicans hoped to energize with the convention are more worried than likely voters about affordability. They care more about inflation and the economy and less about immigration. Plus, of those who supported Trump in the past, the less politically engaged are now the least supportive of him. “The Republicans who say they are definitely going to vote in November say they approve of Trump at 87%, versus 13% who disapprove,” said Morris. “But among 2024 Trump voters who say they won’t vote in November, POTUS’s approval is just 55%, vs 40% who disapprove.”

Yes, low-engagement voters helped Trump win the White House twice. In 2024, though, inflation was high under Democrats and thus numerous voters, especially low-propensity ones, punished the Democratic Party. But now the tables have turned, and an increasing share of this cohort blames Trump for the rising cost of living.

Still, if this were 2024 Trump, pretending he’s on the ballot might be a good strategy. But 2026 Trump is, to many people, unrecognizable from the man they voted for nearly two years ago. Telling voters the war will end soon after the midterms and then gas will come down is asking Americans to put a lot of trust in a president many believe has already turned his back on them. The only thing likely to make swing voters lean right or to rouse low-turnout Republicans is improving their daily lives, but with Election Day less than two months away, the window to change minds is quickly closing.