The Redistricting Payoff Looks Smaller Than Promised

Republicans set off a redistricting bonanza last year after President Donald Trump nudged Texas into redrawing its map to gain up to five seats. The idea was to give the party a leg up in an unfavorable midterm environment. Democrats retaliated in California, and then the GOP got the ball rolling in other states. Virginia almost had a new Democrat-friendly map in place until the state supreme court struck it down, deflating the party’s hopes of leveling the playing field.

As it stands, many strategists still believe the redistricting efforts could net Republicans six to 10 seats. But that outlook ignores the fact that many seats designed to be safe are surprisingly competitive. Now, what was supposed to be a bulwark for their House majority seems to be slipping away.

The Redistricting Gamble

In total, Republicans drew new maps in eight states: Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama. Missouri's redrawn map is off the table, though, because the US Supreme Court recently blocked it, erasing the one seat Republicans anticipated there. They’re still expected to gain some seats from their map-making efforts, but many races in reconfigured areas are far more competitive than imagined. In the states that made changes, including California, Democrats could actually average a net gain of two seats, according to a forecast by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). To understand how this shortfall could unfold, let’s turn to where the redistricting arms race began.

In Texas, the GOP aimed to knock off as many as five Democratic-held seats when redrawing districts, but DDHQ’s forecast estimates the party will net fewer than two. Part of the reason rests in heavily Latino South Texas, a demographic that helped Trump return to the White House in 2024 but has since soured on the president. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are both favored to win reelection. Democrats also have a fighting chance of holding onto the newly drawn 35th District and could flip the 15th District, where Democrat Bobby Pulido leads two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz by an average of 2.5 points in Liberty Nation News’ polling aggregator. In the 23rd District, DDHQ shows Republicans with a 79% chance of holding the seat; however, GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, a former YouTuber, faces backlash over vulgar online comments that have recently resurfaced, which could hurt his chances. All in all, the Lone Star State’s redistricting effort looks as if it will underperform.

In California, Democrats hope to obtain five seats and may get close. Decision Desk estimates the party will gain about four, mostly from the 1st, 6th, and 38th districts. The new 22nd District could also flip blue, with Democrat Randy Villegas leading Republican Rep. David Valadao by 4 points in a Tulchin Research poll, the only survey conducted so far in the race. The GOP might take the 13th and 45th Districts and could hold the 48th, though a recent poll shows Republican Jim Desmond down by three points in that district.

Unexpected Competition

Florida is where the waters get murkier for the GOP’s map-making endeavors. Republicans sought to gain as many as four seats with the redraw, yet DDHQ's average shows almost no net change. Incumbent Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who recently released an advertisement criticizing Trump’s immigration policies, is neck and neck with Democrat Eliott Rodriguez in the 27th District. In the 13th, a Democratic poll shows retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray five points ahead of GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, while a Republican internal poll had Luna up eight. Plus, Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz, both seeking another term in Trump-won seats, look likely to hold on. Democrats are also competitive in the open 22nd.

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Another challenge for the GOP’s redistricting efforts is in Ohio, where Republicans trail in the three targeted races. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who squeaked out a win in 2024, has roughly a 65% chance of victory in her rematch against Republican Derek Merrin, according to DDHQ. The new map also turned Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes’ seat to a darker shade of blue. Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman’s seat went from leaning blue to purplish, but he’s ahead of Republican Eric Conroy by three points in the latest Quantus Insights poll. GOP Rep. Max Miller once looked poised to keep his seat until his ex-wife accused him of domestic abuse. Though he denies the allegations, the situation has made his road to reelection much rockier.

Then there’s North Carolina. In the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces GOP nominee Laurie Buckhout. Cook Political Report ranks the race as Lean Republican, though it’s looking more like a toss-up by the day. The GOP-held 11th is also on shaky ground, but since Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards ended his campaign following an ethics investigation into his conduct with female staffers, the race seems more competitive. Still, Republicans remain favored to hold the seat. Decision Desk’s forecast shows Democrats gaining an average of one seat in NC.

A Mixed Bag

The outcomes in the remaining redrawn states look more settled. Louisiana Republicans redrew their map after the US Supreme Court struck down the old one as a racial gerrymander, and they appear set to win the new 6th District. In Tennessee, the GOP redrew the 9th District and is favored to win it. Democrats are poised to pick up one in Utah after a court decision resulted in an altered map. In Alabama, Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures faces an uphill battle to hold his redistricted seat in the new 2nd District; State Rep. Rhett Marques, the Republican nominee, is favored to defeat Figures.

In hindsight, Republicans might’ve been better off if they had never changed any maps because then Democrats would not have redrawn districts in California, which seems likely to gain them more seats than the GOP might get from its Texas effort. Overall, neither party looks poised to gain much compared to the amount of time and effort spent on the ordeal. Perhaps both sides would have been better off spending that time engaging with voters instead of trying to pick them.