The Political Horse Race – May 14th

The polls, analysis, and betting odds - all right here at your fingertips each week on LibertyNation.com - Where Facts Matter.

The Candidates' Market Report

It seems that President Trump's approval ratings remain unshakeable. In the same week that saw talks with China of trade fall apart, the president's approval ratings didn't even shift a single point. Could there be something more at play? A recent poll on voters' opinion on illegal immigration may shed some light on why, despite two years of setbacks and accusations, the Teflon Don is still riding higher than Barack Obama was during the same period of his presidency. Over 60% of Americans believe that if someone is in the country illegally - whether through border jumping or even overstaying their visa - they should be found by the government and sent home. In fact, only 21% disagreed with this position. Despite the news media telling us that this country welcomes illegal immigrants, it now looks like a distinct minority position.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 50% ( no change )
• Congress - 22% ( no change  )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Joe Biden - 5/2
• Bernie Sanders - 7/2
• Kamala Harris - 4/1
• Pete Buttigieg - 13/2
• Beto O'Rourke - 12/1
• Andrew Yang - 12/1

Despite poor polling pretty much everywhere, Bernie Sanders has managed to claw back a quarter of a point against former VP Joe Biden. There's still a long way to go before contenders get down to tearing each other apart, but to survive the primary intact, Biden needs to be increasing his lead by more than 1 point. Kirsten Gillibrand has dropped to 35/1 and is now officially a rank outsider with next to no chance of making it into the top debates. Speaking recently, she said this was due to her gender ... which apparently does not apply to Kamala Harris who is only a point and a half from the top spot.

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Impeachment - 1/8
• Resignation - 9/1
• Trump to publish the precise dimensions of his hands to his Twitter account - 50/1
• The Queen to ban Trump from the UK - 100/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

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