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Democratic Party hopes for flipping this Senate this November are routed through an extremely narrow path. With almost zero margin for error, Michigan has become a focal point not only for getting the necessary numbers, but also for determining whether the party itself can form a unified, cohesive message to present to voters nationwide. With the Senate primary still uncalled – and more than 90% of the vote counted – party leaders are enduring the longest wait politically imaginable.
The Michigan Numbers So Far
Three candidates are vying for the party nomination; the winner will ultimately face off against Republican Mike Rogers who ran uncontested. In a distant third position sits Mallory McMorrow, on just 4% of the current tally, leaving Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed almost neck and neck as the final ballots are counted.
El-Sayed, the candidate endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) has a fractional lead (currently at 48.7%) over establishment-backed Stevens on 47.3%. While just a few percent of the votes remain to be tallied, one might assume that a point and a half edge this far into the counting is enough to call the race. However, the areas where ballots remain are places that have swayed mightily towards Stevens.
Wayne County, for example, still has roughly 20% of its count to go, and so far, it favors Stevens by almost five percent. There are still tens of thousands of ballots that could narrow the gap considerably. And then there’s Macomb County and Oakland County – also returning for Stevens where a significant number of votes remain uncounted.
It’s about as close a race as one could imagine.
Outsider Vs Establishment
Democratic Party leadership has backed Stevens over El-Sayed in a big way. In fact, it would be fair to say that an El-Sayed win could put plans for a Senate takeover in jeopardy and create an intra-party division that has the potential to derail a lot more than upper-chamber ambitions.
While calling himself a “capitalist,” El-Sayed has attended numerous meetings of the Democratic Socialist of America and is openly backed by its biggest cheerleaders in Congress. That in itself is not enough to be causing jitters. What is, however, is his association with popular anti-Israel influencer Hasan Piker. Piker, it should be remembered, stated that America “deserved 9/11.” El-Sayed’s own rhetoric suggests he has more than a couple of issues with the Jewish state, calling out Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer during a debate saying:
"If you want your politics dictated to you by AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] or Chuck Schumer, then I'm not your guy.”
On another occasion, he bluntly stated that he had "very little interest" in meeting with party leadership. This is not someone likely to be a team player when it comes to creating a unified midterm message.
An Exodus Waiting to Happen?
Should Stevens fail and El-Sayed gain the nomination, it begs the question of how Democrat leadership navigates the latter’s views on Israel and the Jewish community. As witnessed with Maine’s Graham Platner debacle, the party is often willing to overlook all sorts of ills until it can’t. This nebulous breaking point could come sooner rather than later.
James Carville recently opined that he would not be in the same party as someone like Hasan Piker. “I think that a majority — an overwhelming majority — of Democrats agree with me,” he said. And while it is entirely possible that, should El-Sayed win, he becomes a more cooperative team player (after all, a primary campaign is a different animal), there’s little evidence to suggest that voters won’t get exactly what wanted.
If Stevens wins through today in Michigan, the Democratic Party will breathe a collective sigh of relief. If the establishment candidate falls short and Abdul El-Sayed becomes the lynchpin for the party’s Senate hopes, all bets are off.
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