When asked to identify their station in life, 31% of Americans said they consider themselves working class, 12% lower class, and 2% upper class, according to the Pew Research Center. That leaves a majority of 54%, or more than 180 million people, who self-identify as middle-class or upper-middle-class. The political ramifications of this are self-evident. Presidential candidates have always sought to appeal to this broad swath of the electorate more than any other demographic. Most recently, Kamala Harris famously and repeatedly tried — but failed — to convince voters that she “grew up in a middle-class home.” Joe Biden consistently promised to build the economy “from the bottom up and the middle out,” whatever that means. On the flip side, Donald Trump was elected twice on the strength of middle-class voters, 52% of whom pulled the lever for him in 2024 and 50% in 2016. In contrast, he won just 42% of that vote in his controversial defeat in 2020.
Indeed, many a president has been elected and thrived in office by successfully convincing the middle class that he has their best interests at heart. And that is why the latest economic metrics should be very heartening to Trump, particularly when it comes to real-wage growth. Americans are less interested in macroeconomic indicators and forecasts than they are in their own financial well-being, particularly their prospects for earning more money going forward.
Middle-Class Boom or Bust?
A new report from the Treasury Department reveals that, since Trump assumed office six months ago, middle-class and blue-collar workers are experiencing real-wage gains (that is, earnings adjusted for inflation) not seen in nearly 60 years. Average hourly earnings for middle-class workers rose 1.7% from December 2024 to May 2025, almost twice the rate of inflation over the same period. While it may not sound like much, this largest half-year real-wage growth number since the presidency of Richard Nixon represents thousands of dollars a year for wage earners. And it is opposite to the first six months of the Biden presidency, when wages shrank by 2.5%.
These real-wage growth numbers on top of Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill (BBB), salvaging tax rates that had been scheduled to rise and promising no taxes on tips and overtime, among other benefits, point to an economy clearly on the rise. It’s almost a back-to-the-future moment reminiscent of Trump’s first term. As noted by the Association of Mature American Citizens, according to IRS data, taxpayers who earned less than $100,000 received by far the biggest benefit from Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Thus, those who stand to gain the most from this year’s BBB will be those same middle- and working-class earners.
And with tariff revenues pouring in and foreign countries pledging to invest trillions more at the president's behest, most recently the European Union, it seems the economy is firing on all cylinders.
Uncertainty in the Trump Economy
Why, then, are Trump’s approval numbers, particularly on economic matters, falling instead of rising? The latest Gallup poll puts the president’s overall approval at a mere 37%, though other polls show higher support around the mid-40s. In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, only 18% said they are better off financially since Trump was sworn in, while 32% said the same, and 50% said worse, while 62% believe Trump’s policies are making food and groceries more expensive. And a new Fox News poll found that 62% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation.
Liberty Nation News’ economics guru Andrew Moran views continuing uncertainty about the economy as the driver of this surprising pessimism:
“While trade-driven negative expectations have stabilized since their April peak, various business and consumer surveys still indicate that the public remains concerned about future economic conditions, including the labor market and inflation. The latest retail sales data suggest that shoppers have opened their wallets again. However, other measurements, such as on consumer spending, indicate a more cautious shopper. If the economy can come out of these trade spats unscathed – job creation persists, no significant inflation, rising wages, and solid growth rates – then his polling numbers on these issues should improve ahead of next year’s midterm elections.”
Indeed, the full effects of the BBB, Trump’s tariffs, and trillions in foreign investment have yet to be felt by middle-class Americans. When these reforms settle in and spread through the economy, is their satisfaction with Trump likely to rise or fall?
Well, tariff “panicans” were certain Liberation Day would lead to a stock market crash and rising inflation. Neither has happened. Initial tariff-induced losses in the market were reversed in the space of just over one month, and the market has now soared to record highs. Gas prices are down. Eggs are affordable again. Streets are safer with criminal aliens being deported day after day. And with real wages growing faster than at any time in decades, one suspects that the main impetus, along with immigration, for Trump being returned to the Oval Office will lead to increased optimism and consumer confidence. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome the media’s fixation with savaging Trump and allow Republicans to defy history by maintaining their narrow majorities in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
