Battlefield rhythms are dynamic. One day, the tide of war is favorable – the next, it isn’t. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have enjoyed victories in recovering lost territory and beating back the Russian invaders. Do such victories indicate a sustainable trend, or will Moscow's soldiers rally to regain momentum? Pundits and military commentators have been guarded in predicting victory or defeat for the courageous Ukrainian ground and air forces. The first issue to tackle is to define what "winning" means. It is not the same for everyone. For Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, victory is to recover all lost territory since April of 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas region of Ukraine with an occupying force. Others would have a less ambitious definition, believing a win would be just to return to the situation as it was before February 24, pre-invasion.
As Liberty Nation reported recently, some US national security commentators believe, with notable caveats, Ukraine, to some extent, has won the conflict. But that point of view is on the margin and not held commonly. The more thoughtful perspective is how much lost territory the Ukrainian forces have recovered recently and whether their battle momentum is sustainable. And as important in a more general sense is the impact of economic sanctions on the Kremlin. Will a combination of Ukraine's battlefield success and the sanctions against Moscow prove sufficient to prompt Vladimir Putin to capitulate and withdraw his forces? Giving the Kyiv government reason for optimism is the recent and rapid recapturing of areas of northeastern Ukraine up to the border with Russia. "The counteroffensive left the Kremlin struggling for a response to its largest military defeat in Ukraine since Russian forces pulled back from areas near Kyiv after a botched attempt to capture the capital early in the invasion," Associated Press reported.
Kremlin Admits Ukraine Won Back Kharkiv
"The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). What is increasingly more apparent is the effect US and European weapons are having on the Russian enemy. Weapons like the very accurate Highly Mobile Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, are devastating to Moscow's infantry and armor. The fact that the Kremlin is admitting failure on the battlefield is a departure from the party line coming from the Russian leadership. The demoralization of the Russian combat units can no longer be ignored. Furthermore, activities within Ukraine are evidence the conflict is going in a more positive direction. "Russia's retreat from the area around Kyiv, the slow progress of its subsequent offensives, and Ukraine's recent counterattacks have created enough certainty for economic activity to resume in the unoccupied part of Ukraine," the Wall Street Journal reported.
Following the retreat from Kyiv, Kremlin forces had intended to reorganize and resupply, focusing on eastern Ukraine. It seemed the Russians had a renewed capability to capture and hold significant military objectives for a time. Currently, Russia holds around 90% of the Donbas. But Ukrainian forces are making rapid advances, and it is debatable whether Kremlin soldiers have the staying power, particularly with reports of large numbers of Russians surrendering.
Economic Pressure on Russia May Not be Decisive
Vladimir Putin (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the economic pressure building on Russia from the economic sanctions has mixed reviews. Putin has consistently maintained that he and his government have successfully minimized the sanctions’ impacts. "Russia has earned approximately $160 billion from oil and gas sales since the start of the war. It has sold vast amounts of energy to China and India, as well as supplying allied neighbors with bubblin' crude. Moscow is now producing more oil than ever before, allowing the nation to rake in even more profits," Liberty Nation's economics correspondent, Andrew Moran, observed. Whether the immediate results of sanctions applied by the US and European nations have had the desired effect or not, the general recent ground battle losses and the combat casualties in killed and wounded certainly are affecting Russia.
A few weeks ago, it would have been unthinkable that serious criticism of President Putin would ever become public. But the losses on the battlefield in Ukraine have emboldened many Russian municipal leaders. "Vladimir Putin's problems are mounting as a group of Russian politicians have risked their livelihoods to demand his resignation in the wake of his collapsing invasion of Ukraine," the Daily Mail reported. Descension at home is bad news for President Putin, but no one expects the Russian strongman to turn tail and leave Ukraine. Assessing the flow of the conflict in Ukraine, some indicators favor the point of view Kyiv is winning. But there isn't enough evidence to be certain.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
